Monetary Policy

Gate News message. On April 6, according to today's CME “FedWatch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 1.6%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged cumulatively by June is 96.6%, the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point rate cuts is 1.8%, and the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point rate hikes is 1.5%.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 to consider Kevin Wosch’s nomination to serve as the Federal Reserve Chair. Although the current chair, Powell, is facing a criminal investigation, Wosch’s nomination process is still ongoing and could conflict with the investigation. Committee member Thom Tillis said he will not confirm Wosch before the investigation is concluded. This shows that Trump faces challenges in advancing two parallel processes.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 to review Kevin Wosch’s nomination to serve as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the ongoing criminal investigation into the current Chair, Powell, may affect Wosch’s confirmation process. Committee members have said they will not vote to confirm before the investigation concludes, which could create a potential clash between two tracks of the Trump administration.

In March, the U.S. added 178,000 jobs, recovering from February's losses and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.3%. The stronger-than-expected report may influence future interest rate decisions by the Fed amidst fluctuating oil prices.

A Federal Reserve watcher said that the U.S. added 178k jobs in March, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but wage growth slowed to the lowest level in five years. The average monthly number of new jobs was only 22.5k, the economic outlook is fragile, and inflation concerns may further limit the room for rate cuts.

Gate News, April 4, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026 have eased.

The World Gold Council report shows that in February 2026, central banks in various countries net bought 19 tons of gold. Although this is below the 2025 average, it is up from January’s 5 tons. Central banks’ acceptance of gold continues to strengthen, with both the Czech Republic and China maintaining consecutive gold-buying records. Goldman Sachs and UBS predict that gold prices may rise in the future.

The International Monetary Fund recommends that the Bank of Japan continue raising interest rates, despite new risks to Japan’s economy stemming from the Middle East war. Rising oil prices and yen depreciation have intensified inflation pressures. The IMF expects inflation to return to the 2% target in 2027 and emphasizes the importance of a flexible interest-rate policy.

A research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) notes that the Iran–U.S. conflict has pushed up oil prices, increasing inflation risks, affecting expectations for Fed rate cuts, and driving selling of gold ETFs. Geopolitical developments put oil prices at a crossroads, while the gold market is focused on how an economic downturn could affect it; in the future, it may reassess expectations for rate hikes. Demand for gold investment and prices may have room to rise.

Gate News update, April 3, Carson Group’s Chief Macroeconomic Strategist Sonu Varghese said that the latest labor data show that the economy’s new job growth is sufficient to keep pace with population growth. He noted that this will put the Federal Reserve in a more complicated position, making rate cuts pointless—especially given the size of the inflation shock that’s coming. He added that the inflation problem already existed before the Middle East crisis that sent energy prices soaring, and in the end, it appears that the rate cuts implemented last year were a mistake.

The U.S. job market saw significant improvement in March, adding 178,000 jobs and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This rebound follows February's losses, with potential implications for future interest rate hikes amid ongoing oil price concerns.

Gate News message, on April 3, market pricing shows that bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026 have eased.

Gate News update: On April 3, according to CME's “FedWatch” data, ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 7.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 91.7%, and the probability of raising rates by a cumulative 25 basis points is 0.5%.

In March 2026, gold prices saw a sharp 12% pullback, prompting the market to reassess its structural risks. Goldman Sachs analysts said that trading was driven by margin imbalances and intensifying geopolitical conflicts, leading traders to close positions and sell off gold. Despite increased short-term volatility, institutions remain optimistic about gold’s medium- to long-term outlook, forecasting that the price could reach $5,400 by year-end. Future trends will be influenced by the strength of the U.S. dollar and the state of the global economy.

The European Central Bank plans to officially issue a digital euro in July 2029, and has already reached consensus on legislation. The digital euro is intended to strengthen financial sovereignty and reduce reliance on the U.S. payment system. Completing legislation by the end of 2026 will drive a 12-month pilot in 2027.

Goolsbee said that with the economy impacted by the shock from oil prices and inflation not yet having eased, rising oil prices could further worsen inflation expectations, bringing greater difficulties and slowing hiring. Companies are facing uncertainty.

Gate News, April 2, the Federal Reserve’s Logan said she supports the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged at its recent FOMC meeting. She noted that the labor market has been moving toward stability from the second half of 2025 to this year.

Dallas Fed Chair Logan outlined several paths for the Federal Reserve to reduce its balance sheet, emphasized the effectiveness of the current liquidity management framework, and noted that regulatory adjustments can encourage banks to lower their reserve levels. She criticized that some liquidity rules have failed to improve safety and said that reserves could be used more efficiently.

The International Monetary Fund said in its annual assessment report that although U.S. inflation is expected to fall to the 2% target in the second half of 2026, the room for rate cuts this year is extremely limited—at most there may be one opportunity for a rate cut by the end of 2026. This will need to take into account changes in the labor market and the impact of commodity prices.

Legislator Ko Ru-jun proposed including Bitcoin and stablecoins in Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves, believing their advantages are especially evident in extreme situations. Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-lung responded that, although his stance remains unchanged, he will continuously evaluate new developments. Globally, central banks generally adopt a conservative approach, believing that Bitcoin is not suitable as a reserve asset, and Taiwan’s progress in this area is unlikely to be realized in the short term.