The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 92.1%

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike drops sharply to 0.5%, easing Bitcoin’s pressure

Based on data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting is 99.5%, effectively eliminating the risk of further rate hikes. This expectation is driven by multiple macro factors, including slowing inflation and stable economic growth. For high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, keeping rates unchanged helps improve market sentiment, making investors’ expectations of rate cuts the next focus.

BTC drops 1.03% in 15 minutes: tighter macro liquidity and derivatives synchronized to amplify sell-off pressure

From 23:30 to 23:45 (UTC) on 2026-04-07, the BTC price rapidly fell within 15 minutes, with a return of -1.03%. The price range was 71,905.7 to 72,760.5 USDT, and the amplitude was 1.17%. Market attention remained high; intraday volatility significantly increased. Trading volumes across major platforms briefly surged, indicating that selling pressure and risk-avoidance sentiment had permeated mainstream cryptocurrencies. The main drivers of this deviation were the continued tightening of macro liquidity under the Fed’s hawkish signals and a concentrated adjustment in the BTC derivatives market. The Fed’s interest rate in March 2026

Federal Reserve Chair Williams Addresses the Worsh Nomination Stalemate, Says It Won’t Affect the Continuity of the Committee’s Work

There is uncertainty regarding Kevin Walsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve chair, because Republican senators oppose moving forward with the nomination, especially as Powell is still under investigation. New York Fed President Williams said this uncertainty does not affect the Federal Reserve, and Powell can continue serving in his position before Walsh is confirmed.

FX Bank Societe Generale: If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged this year, the U.S. dollar may trade within a range

French banking analyst Kit Juckes issued a report stating that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged this year, the U.S. dollar will fluctuate. The market expects G10 central banks to raise rates, but Sweden’s economic growth forecast is only slightly higher than that of the United States, which limits the dollar’s appreciation. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the dollar could fall.

Federal Reserve Chair Williams: If necessary, monetary policy can be adjusted; for now, we can wait and see how things develop.

Gate News message, April 7, the Federal Reserve’s Williams said that the monetary policy can be adjusted if necessary; for now, it may be observed for the time being. He expects this year’s GDP growth to be 2% to 2.5%, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. Williams noted that the labor market situation is quite complex and expects that core inflation will fall later this year.

Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the global easing breadth index; this week, ETFs recorded their largest net inflow since February

The negative correlation between Bitcoin and global central bank monetary policy suggests that institutional capital has already positioned itself ahead of a potential easing cycle. In the recent spot ETF net inflows have hit a new high, but the market remains choppy and unstable, with weak demand. Corporate allocation has slowed, volatility in the options market has increased, and traders are more inclined to add downside protection.