Geopolitics

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke at Harvard University, emphasizing economic uncertainty and unclear policy direction, causing markets to hold off. Bitcoin has been trading sideways around $67,400, showing some resilience. Powell mentioned inflation and the state of the job market, suggesting that policy room is limited. Market expectations for future policy changes have been muted, and both traditional markets and crypto assets are waiting for key catalysts.

Trump may be ready to walk away from the Iran war. Markets aren't sure what that means yet. Bitcoin traded at $67,545 on Tuesday morning, roughly flat over 24 hours after recovering from a dip below $65,200 that briefly marked its lowest level since the war began in late February. Ether held

Dubai has officially established regulations for cryptocurrency derivatives, aimed at enhancing the legal framework for digital assets. The new rules, issued by VARA, allow individual investors to participate while enforcing strict suitability assessments, margin controls, and leverage limits to mitigate risks. This move reinforces Dubai's position as a crypto hub, balancing financial innovation and investor protection. The actual market impact will depend on effective implementation of these regulations.

Bitcoin remains stable around $67,500 as speculation grows about Donald Trump's potential to de-escalate tensions with Iran. This stability reflects a cautious investor sentiment amid broader market volatility driven by geopolitical concerns.

On March 31, 2026, the Bitcoin price has been trading in the vicinity of $67,500, showing a certain level of resilience despite uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East. The market is watching for signals from Trump regarding an end to the Iran conflict, which is boosting sentiment for risk assets. Volatility in global markets is increasing, and the crypto market continues to perform better than traditional assets. Analysis suggests that Bitcoin has strong shock-absorbing capacity. Going forward, attention will be on the progress of the war and its impact on liquidity and inflation.

Google’s quantum AI team published a white paper stating that future quantum computers could crack the ECDLP-256 elliptic curve cryptography with fewer resources, posing a threat to cryptocurrency security. It recommends immediately initiating a post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration, avoiding the reuse of wallet addresses, and paying attention to policy choices for abandoned addresses. Google proposed a zero-knowledge proof to securely disclose the vulnerability, and set 2029 as the deadline for quantum-resistant migration to ensure the industry is sufficiently prepared.

The US-Israeli coalition continues to carry out military actions against Iran, and Israel carried out 170 airstrikes against Tehran within 24 hours. A Kuwaiti oil tanker was hit by an Iranian drone attack, raising concerns about energy supply and pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel. Experts are concerned about Trump’s threat to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, saying it could violate international law. Global markets came under pressure as tensions escalated, especially as demand increased for oil and safe-haven assets.

Recently, rumors circulating online claim that “Google research shows quantum computers can crack Bitcoin private keys within 9 minutes,” but this is actually misinformation; there is no source for the data. In fact, cracking Bitcoin’s ECDSA requires 1.9 billion qubits, far more than Google Willow’s 105. The real threat is that an attacker can first collect data and then use a quantum computer to decrypt it; experts’ predictions for when quantum computers can crack encryption are in the 2035–2040 timeframe. The cryptography industry has already begun preparing defensive measures.

_Rising political engagement by crypto firms signals that regulation is becoming central to the industry’s growth__._ Crypto firms are stepping deeper into U.S. politics as regulation moves closer to a decisive phase. A newly launched political action committee, the Blockchain Leadership Fund,

Breaking Bitcoin's blockchain with quantum computers may not be as difficult as once thought, and Bitcoin’s Taproot technology, which enables more efficient, private transactions, may be partly to blame, Google's Quantum AI team said Monday in a blog post and newly published whitepaper. The team s

Google plans to transition its infrastructure to post-quantum cryptography by 2029, emphasizing the urgency of addressing quantum risks. While Bitcoin isn't facing immediate danger, the decentralized nature of crypto complicates the transition to enhanced security.

Legislator Ko Yu-jun proposes that stablecoins be included in Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves. The central bank governor, Yang Chin-lung, said the current situation will remain unchanged, but policies may be adjusted in the future. Ko Yu-jun points out Bitcoin’s advantages under special geopolitical conditions and, referencing how countries are positioning themselves, suggests using stablecoins as a viable alternative to ensure the resilience and diversification of asset allocation.

The U.S. Senate will consider the “Digital Asset Market Transparency Act” (CLARITY Act). The bill’s biggest concession is a comprehensive ban on earning passive income from stablecoins, but it will provide activity-based incentives to make up for it. In addition, the bill explicitly grants a liability shield for DeFi developers, and it establishes the jurisdiction of the CFTC and SEC. If the bill is not passed before May, it may be pushed back to 2026. This bill is important for clarifying crypto market regulation and, at the same time, it will affect how stablecoins are positioned.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating. Trump threatens to bomb Iran’s oil and power facilities, pushing U.S. crude oil prices to surge past $100. Taiwan stocks fell sharply, dropping more than 400 points due to the spillover, while the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. U.S. stocks and Bitcoin continue to trade in choppy, sideways consolidation. Latest developments in the U.S.-Iran war: Trump threatens to bomb Iran’s power plants and oil wells --------------------- A coalition of U.S. and Israeli forces continues its military operations against Iran. According to a report by CNN, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that if no agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz is opened, he would destroy Iran’s power plants and oil wells. Earlier, he said he was considering taking control of Iran’s Khark Island. Iran’s parliament approved charging tolls for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and banned U.S. and Israeli ships from passage. Israel’s military also carried out a large-scale airstrike against Tehran, Iran’s capital. In 24 hours, it struck 170 targets, including drone engines

In recent discussions in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan about whether to include USD stablecoins in the country’s foreign exchange reserves, Legislator Ko Ru-chiun suggested that the central bank could run a small pilot program. Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-lung said he still has reservations, but may adjust in the future. Experts also mentioned that consideration should be given to issuing an indigenous stablecoin to safeguard financial sovereignty and provide diversified options.

On the decentralized sustainable derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, a whale trader opened a leveraged short Bitcoin position worth $53.0 million, with a liquidation price of $80,630. At the same time, the trader also holds short positions in silver and multiple altcoins, as well as a long position in Brent crude oil, reflecting its bearish outlook on the current market. Geopolitics, regulatory uncertainty, and the upcoming employment data make up the threefold pressure weighing on this week’s market.

Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $67,660. A U.S. senator proposed the “American Mining Act” to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Bitmine re-staked 167,500 ETH, bringing its total staked amount to nearly 3.31 million ETH. With market volatility, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell. Analysts say that short-term market sentiment is sluggish, and rising oil prices have affected BTC prices.

Bitcoin rebounded to above $67,000 on March 31, mainly driven by signals from U.S.-Iran diplomacy and the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Market sentiment temporarily improved, but Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that the lack of direct negotiations could limit the rebound. The potential impact of the Strait of Hormuz toll bill on supply chains could push up oil prices and put pressure on the market, so it is important to closely monitor future price movements.

U.S. President Trump said he is willing to end military action against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. He plans to use diplomatic pressure to Iran to restore free trade; if that fails, he will consider having allies take the lead in reopening the strait. A military option is not a priority.