Prediction Market

Gate News Report, March 8, - Prediction market platform Kalshi was sued collectively. The platform failed to pay appropriate winnings to users of prediction event contracts related to the Iran war. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour previously stated opposition to profiting from individual deaths and claimed he would refund fees for the "Will Khamenei step down" event contract market.

Gate News Report, March 8 — According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are in talks with potential investors for a new round of funding, with target valuations of approximately $20 billion each. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that both companies were valued at around $10 billion at the end of last year, and this funding round aims to double their valuation compared to late 2022. As competition in the prediction market intensifies, both sides are accelerating efforts to attract user growth and leverage this to drive negotiations for a new funding round.

Gate News Update, March 7 — According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of the event "Crude oil prices will surpass $100 in March" has surged from a low of 35% yesterday to 76%, with trading volume exceeding $10 million. Previously, JPMorgan stated that even if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for only 3-4 weeks, it could force Gulf Cooperation Council member countries to shut down oil production and push Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Gate News bot message: According to The Wall Street Journal, the valuation targets for prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are approximately $20 billion each.

The prediction market platform Polymarket has shown limitations in trading related to the Iran situation. Despite an increase in trading volume, it failed to demonstrate its ability to hedge geopolitical risks and instead became a cautionary example, highlighting its lack of signals for institutional investors.

Gate News reports that on March 6, according to PolyBeats monitoring, the "OpenAI will release GPT-5.4 before March 5" market on the prediction market platform Polymarket, which was previously tracked for 5 suspected insider accounts buying in, has now been settled. Among them, the account with the address 0x169527179bbc4bd99288585fc39eb0e117bf2842 profited 285% within two weeks by placing three consecutive bets on the release date of GPT series models.

Gate News Report, March 6 — According to Lookonchain monitoring, a new wallet address named "Idothisfromtimetotime" was created 3 hours ago and has wagered $50,000 betting that Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz before March 31. Currently, this wallet has lost $18,000, with a loss rate of 36.15%.

Gate News Report, March 6 — According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability that "a certain CEX will go public in 2026" has declined from a high of 57% in early January to 17% currently, with a trading volume exceeding $400,000. Previously, on March 5, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, invested in the exchange with a valuation of $25 billion. ICE has not disclosed the specific investment amount or terms but emphasized a shared vision for the future between the two companies.

Gate News Report, March 6: According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of "Iran's next Supreme Leader being Ayatollah Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei," rose to 82% at one point, currently falling back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million. Previously, Trump stated that he would not accept Khamenei's son taking over as Supreme Leader and that he would need to be personally involved in Iran's succession arrangements.

Gate News Announcement, March 6th, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated that prediction markets help us better understand the world and the near future. He hopes prediction market projects will focus more on optimizing this direction, especially by developing more conditional markets.

Senator Chris Murphy plans to introduce legislation to restrict public betting on prediction markets related to government military actions to address insider trading risks. Recently, traders profited before the airstrike on Iran, raising concerns. The bill will prohibit market trading related to war or political speeches, aiming to maintain market integrity, prevent the misuse of sensitive information, while preserving exceptions for financial contracts.

Foresight News reports that the probability of betting on Polymarket that "Predict.fun FDV will surpass 50 million USD within 1 day after launch" is 89%. The probability of surpassing 100 million USD within 1 day after launch is 72%, and the probability of surpassing 200 million USD within 1 day after launch is 44%.

2026 World Baseball Classic, the Chinese Taipei team will face Japan on March 6th, with predictions showing Japan's win probability at 91%. Fans are rallying by eating "Anti-Japanese cuisine" and hosting outdoor live streaming parties to cheer for Taiwan. Streamer Ding Te also launched activities to motivate fans to support.

Macroeconomic pressures are weighing on the cryptocurrency market, with oil prices expected to break through $90, causing Bitcoin to drop to $71,000, and the market fear index falling to 18. High oil prices may boost inflation, influence Federal Reserve policies, and further suppress risk assets. Despite widespread market panic, historical data shows increased chances of a rebound at this time. Moving forward, attention should be paid to oil prices and Bitcoin price trends to determine the market direction.

BlockBeats News, March 6th, Polymarket predicts an 89% chance that "Bitcoin will rebound to $75,000 this year." Additionally, the forecast for BTC to rise to $80,000 within the year is currently 75%, while the probability of dropping to $55,000 is currently 68%.

Summary: The Middle East reignites in conflict, and traditional markets fall into a "pricing vacuum" due to weekend closures. Prediction markets and perpetual exchanges, at this moment, become the only continuously operating price systems worldwide. Author: Changan I Biteye Content Team Over the weekend, the US and Israel jointly conducted airstrikes on Iran, targeting the core areas of Tehran and missile facilities. This marks the most intense escalation in Middle East tensions in decades. Iran immediately issued a warning: if the conflict continues, the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be safe. Everyone's first reaction is the same: open trading apps and try to do something, but not only are US stocks closed for the weekend, oil and gold futures are also shut all day on Saturday. Panic needs to be released, funds need a place to go, so everyone's attention turns to these two platforms: Polymarket and Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid offers 24/7 commodity futures trading.

Democratic senators accuse Iran of profiting from predictive markets before airstrikes, suspecting ties to Trump's circle, and have proposed legislation to strengthen regulation of such markets. Current laws are somewhat vague regarding bets on military actions, which could lead to moral hazard and incentivize profit-driven political behavior. The bill aims to explicitly prohibit the use of insider information for military market trading.

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy pointed out in a video that someone is betting on "the United States going to war with Iran," suspecting that some individuals have insider information. He and Representative Mike Levin are drafting legislation to strengthen regulation of prediction markets like Polymarket to prevent profiting from military actions.

U.S. Democratic lawmakers plan to push for new regulations to strengthen oversight of prediction markets in response to insider trading risks stemming from bets on military actions against Iran. Senator Murphy warned that such bets could lead to moral hazard, encouraging insiders to profit from them. The proposed legislation aims to prevent the use of sensitive information for unfair trading and has also sparked further discussions on the regulation of prediction markets.