Macroeconomics

Ray Dalio pointed out in an interview that gold is the only reliable hedge asset, warning that Bitcoin cannot become a long-term store of value due to four major flaws: privacy issues, lack of backing, technological risks, and its correlation with tech stocks. He analyzed the fiscal crisis facing the United States and called on investors to pay attention to historical cycles and financial balance.

The Middle East conflict intensifies, posing significant challenges to energy and financial markets. Crude oil and gold prices rise in tandem, with supply risks and inflation expectations driving market reactions. The article analyzes the impact of the war on oil and gold prices and explores Bitcoin's performance amid high uncertainty. Key variables include spillover risks from the conflict, shipping costs, and inflation trajectories. In the future, markets will reassess safety and risk asset allocations.

In some parts of Africa, merchants are turning to Bitcoin as everyday currency rather than just an investment tool, due to high inflation in the region. Executive Chairman Masie highlighted the importance of Bitcoin in combating inflation and noted that the tech-savviness of the young population is driving cryptocurrency growth. On-chain data shows that the African crypto market is growing rapidly, offering a vast space for financial inclusion.

Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at approximately $68,040, failing to continue its rebound. Trump mentioned that stablecoin legislation faces banking threats and called for advancing related bills. Mizuho Securities raised Circle's target stock price to $100, maintaining a neutral rating. U.S. stocks closed lower amid volatility due to the Middle East conflict, with investors concerned about geopolitical uncertainties.

Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with drone attacks damaging AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, causing cloud service outages that affected multiple banks and payment services. This incident highlights the vulnerabilities of centralized architectures. In contrast, decentralized systems based on blockchain technology offer greater resilience against attacks, providing important insights for enterprises operating under geopolitical risks.

Global markets faced turmoil after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, causing volatility in oil, gold, and crypto. Bitcoin briefly plunged but recovered, while energy price shocks raise inflation concerns, affecting investor sentiment and market structure.

On March 3, 2026, from 16:00 to 16:15 (UTC), ETH achieved a short-term profit of +1.30%, with the price fluctuating between 1965.11 and 2001.75 USDT, a volatility of 1.86%. Market attention significantly increased, minute-level trading volume surged, volatility intensified, and short-term capital was actively chasing gains. The main drivers of this anomaly were large inflows of on-chain funds and whale activities. Ceffu's hot wallet transferred a large amount of 15,000 ETH to a major exchange on the same day, whales recharged USDC margins, and large on-chain transfers were active, driving flow.

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Smith said that macroeconomic conditions need to be monitored, and the inflation target has been lowered to 2%; it is expected that a large amount of fiscal stimulus measures will be introduced by 2026.

Between 14:30 and 14:45 (UTC) on 2026-03-03, the price of BTC experienced a significant decline, with a return of -0.99%. It fluctuated within the range of 66,366.6 to 67,576.7 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.80%. Short-term volatility intensified, market attention rapidly increased, trading volume expanded accordingly, and overall sentiment leaned towards caution or even panic. The main driving force behind this anomaly is the decline in global macro risk appetite, with funds accelerating into traditional safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and geopolitical tensions contributed to liquidity tightening. On-chain capital flow experienced

Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego has shifted 70% of his investments into Bitcoin, viewing it as an asset to combat inflation with an expected potential eightfold increase in value. Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," warns of an impending stock market crash and remains bullish on Bitcoin, gold, and silver, considering the current market downturn a good buying opportunity. Both billionaires distrust fiat currency and are confident in Bitcoin's scarcity.

Kevin Lee analyzes the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market in the article, emphasizing that conflicts do not change the fundamental logic of the market; the key lies in their impact on inflation and central bank policies. In the short term, oil and gold experience significant fluctuations, but if energy supplies remain stable, the market will gradually recover. In the long run, inflation data and policy expectations are more important, and emotional decision-making incurs high costs. Understanding market patterns is crucial for managing volatility.

According to Wintermute's research, retail investor funds are flowing heavily into the US stock market, gradually decoupling from the crypto market. The crypto market has entered a mature phase, with retail investors seeking higher capital efficiency shifting towards more volatile stock markets. Generative AI has boosted retail investors' confidence, making it easier for funds to move between the US stock market and the crypto market, leading to a transformation of cryptocurrencies into a component of investment portfolios.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jinshi, Saira Malik, an investment analyst at New York-based firm Nuven, stated in a research report that the widespread impact of the US and Israel's attacks on Iran remains to be seen. She believes that global markets may experience more volatility, and the far-reaching effects will become clearer over time. While the surge in oil prices could push inflation higher, Malik expects this will not affect the Federal Reserve's policy in the short term. She maintains her forecast of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year and believes that the 10-year US Treasury yield will fluctuate around 4%.

U.S. manufacturing PMI remains above 50 for two consecutive months, indicating economic expansion, which could support the altcoin market in 2026. Analysts believe that PMI improvement may boost investors' risk appetite, benefiting high-risk assets, but the market still faces oversupply and low liquidity issues. Future trends need to be observed.

Dubai Gold Air Transport Hub flights suspended, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices and increased inflation expectations. Institutions favor gold, but rising oil prices may suppress gold prices. In the crypto market, BTC fluctuates between 69,500 and 70,500, with market focus on short squeeze and liquidity changes. Overall, macro volatility has increased, and BTC remains within the range, trading sideways.

ChainCatcher Message: "1011 Insider Whale" GarrettJin posted on X platform stating that the current market transmission path is influenced by geopolitical impacts on the macro environment, which in turn further affects the crypto market. He pointed out that attention should be focused on indicators such as oil prices, the US dollar index, and the yields of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds. GarrettJin believes that the crypto market is still in a range-bound consolidation phase and states that maintaining caution is a common choice in the current environment.

Bitcoin has recently rebounded strongly, reaching $68,990, with MicroStrategy increasing its Bitcoin holdings to over 720,000 coins. Nasdaq plans to launch binary options contracts to enter the prediction market. Additionally, the market is affected by tensions between the US and Iran, with investor sentiment leaning towards caution. Future data, including economic indicators from the Eurozone and the United States, will become the focus of attention.

Bitcoin has recently surged significantly, breaking through $70,000, mainly due to over $1 billion in institutional funds flowing back into cryptocurrency ETFs, ending five weeks of outflows, and successfully breaking through the downward trend line. Additionally, the Iran conflict has boosted inflation expectations, enhancing Bitcoin's appeal in an inflationary environment, leading to a rebound in market bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from escalating geopolitical tensions, yet Bitwise says extreme risk spikes have historically preceded strong medium-term gains, positioning the cryptocurrency for a potential rebound as macro liquidity and inflation dynamics evolve. Bitwise Emphasizes Bullish