Bitcoin's "realized market capitalization" firmly holds at $1.1 trillion! Analyst: The market in 2026 is worth looking forward to.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of over 30% in the past 10 weeks, which has left many investors alarmed, on-chain data suggests that the spark of the long positions market does not seem to have extinguished.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's “Realized Cap” is currently firmly at the historical high of $1.125 trillion, indicating that there has not been a large-scale capital withdrawal from the market, suggesting that the bullish market structure remains solid.

Unlike the “Market Cap” (current price x total circulation) we often see, this on-chain indicator is more valuable for reference. “Realized Market Cap” calculates the total value of each Bitcoin based on the “price at the last on-chain movement,” eliminating the speculative hype of short-term trading, reflecting the “actual cost basis of investors” and the “actual capital inflow situation.”

In other words, when the total market value fluctuates wildly with the price of coins, the realized market value remains at a high level, indicating that holders are reluctant to sell and large-scale losses have not been realized.

According to data from blockchain analysis company Glassnode, even though Bitcoin has plummeted over 30% from its historical high in October, the “realized market value” has not only not fallen, but has continued to rise during the correction period, stabilizing around $1.125 trillion recently.

This trend is reminiscent of the situation during the “tariff panic” outbreak in April this year. At that time, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $76,000, but the on-chain funding level did not recede, and the coin price subsequently rebounded strongly and reached a new high.

In contrast to the bear market in 2022, when the price of coins collapsed and investor confidence shattered, a large number of investors sold at a loss, causing the realized market value to plummet from 470 billion USD to 385 billion USD. However, the current market has not seen such panic-driven “mass sell-off” or “collective surrender” behavior.

As a result, analysts began to question the “4-year cycle” theory that is revered in the coin community.

The “4-Year Cycle” Narrative Shakes, Surprises in 2026?

Andre Dragosch, the Head of Research for Europe at asset management company Bitwise, believes that Bitcoin is likely to break free from the “4-year cycle” and experience an unexpected surge in 2026.

He explained that against the backdrop of a resilient global economy and major central banks continuing to cut interest rates, the yield curve is steepening and overall liquidity is expanding. Such an environment often weakens the dollar, and historical experience tells us that a “weak dollar” is beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin.

In my opinion, the current price of Bitcoin seriously underestimates the overall economic environment, comparable to the recession period of the COVID-19 pandemic and the market panic triggered by the FTX collapse. However, the United States is not showing signs of economic recession; instead, we can see signals of growth accelerating again.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, nor do they represent the views and positions of the blockchain community. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and the blockchain community will not be responsible for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investors' trades.
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Tags: 2026 Glassnode Realized Cap Analysis Cryptocurrency Realized Market Cap Market Coin Price Investment Bitcoin Market Trend