分析：比特币相对于黄金处于深度熊市，历史表明跌势可能持续

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Source: PANews

2026-01-22 15:47:29

BTC-3,94%

PANews 1月22日消息，据CoinDesk分析，比特币相对于黄金的价格正处在一个深度熊市阶段，其表现持续弱于黄金，这可能挑战了其“数字黄金”的叙事。目前，比特币兑黄金的比率约为18.46，较2024年12月的峰值下跌约55%，并且比其200周移动平均线（约21.90）低了约17%。从更长期限看，黄金在过去一年和五年的回报率均优于比特币。历史数据显示，在此前的主要熊市周期中，比特币兑黄金比率曾较其200周均线下跌超过30%（2022年）并在其下方持续超过一年。当前的跌破始于2025年11月，若历史重演，该比率可能在整个2026年都维持在均线下方。不过，过往周期的最大回撤幅度较目前也更深，在2022年和2018年周期中分别达到77%和84%。

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