Market Analysis

Bitcoin's price has fallen below the $69K realized price for whales holding 100-1,000 BTC, signaling a potential market shift. This decline raises concerns about investor sentiment and risks of further downturns unless Bitcoin recovers above this threshold.

Bitcoin has gone through several boom-and-bust cycles since its creation, but long-term investors have often been rewarded for holding through periods of volatility. Even in more recent years, Bitcoin has continued to prove why it remains the dominant cryptocurrency in the market. So what would hav

ChainCatcher 消息，据 Cointelegraph 报道，Kaiko Research 表示，比特币在本月初出现的剧烈回调，可能代表着本轮熊市的一个关键“半程节点”。 Kaiko 指出，此轮下跌表明市场已从减半后情绪亢奋阶段转入一个更具历史典型特征的熊市周期。这一阶段通常持续约 12 个月，随后才会进入新的积累期。

Ethereum's price recently dropped to $1,994, down 1.28% in 24 hours. A new whale has invested $33.38 million in ETH with a long position, stirring speculation of bullish sentiment. Key price levels at $2,000 and $2,150 could determine future trends.

截至2月9日，比特币“Mayer Multiple”指标降至0.65，低于超卖水平0.8，创2022年5月以来首次。尽管极端低位可视为买入信号，但仍可能面临进一步下跌，甚至测试4万美元区间。

灰度最新报告指出，比特币近期下跌更像科技股回调，而非黄金避险模式，表明仍为新兴技术资产。长期看，监管和基础设施创新或推动比特币成为价值存储，但需解决扩展性等问题。

Bitcoin Cash is struggling below $522, facing strong resistance and negative market sentiment amid increasing selling pressure. A short-term technical bounce may occur, but further declines towards support at $478.70 remain possible if bearish trends persist.

Số lượng địa chỉ hoạt động trên mạng lưới Axie Infinity (AXS) đã tăng gần gấp đôi chỉ trong vòng 24 giờ qua. Liệu sự gia tăng đột biến trong hoạt động giao dịch, cùng với sự tập trung nguồn cung vào tay các nhà đầu tư lớn, có đủ sức để duy trì đà tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ của AXS? Sự bùng nổ địa chỉ hoạ

Goldman Sachs warns of a potential $80 billion sell-off in US stocks, which could negatively impact BTC prices. Meanwhile, gold and silver prices have eased, prompting investor interest despite economic uncertainties.

The PUMP token is experiencing downward pressure, decreasing by about 2% and extending a prior 4% drop. With 10 billion tokens unlocking soon, retail investor interest wanes, increasing the risk of further declines amid bearish technical indicators.

上周比特幣經歷大幅波動，日跌超過10%，險守60,000美元，雖然後續回彈至70,000美元，但分析師認為尚未出現真正的「投降式拋售」，因期貨基差變化不明顯，並未顯示出市場的極度悲觀情緒，暗示比特幣可能仍有進一步下跌空間。

XRP holders are facing losses as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dips below 1.00, indicating widespread capitulation among investors. This decline reflects a critical break in market sentiment, reminiscent of 2021-2022 trends, raising concerns about further stagnation unless recovery occurs above the cost basis.

2月10日消息，随着黄金现货价格逼近每盎司5000美元，山寨币与黄金之间的估值差距被急剧放大。加密分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 指出，当前“山寨币兑黄金”的比率已跌至历史最低区间，周线RSI降至25，接近2020年疫情黑天鹅时期的极端水平。这一指标被视为非主流加密资产相对贵金属的“结构性低价”信号。 在黄金强势上行的背景下，与实物黄金挂钩的RWA代币成为少数逆势品种。PAX Gold (PAXG) 价格在5035美元附近波动，单日成交额超过4亿美元；Tether Gold (XAUT) 维持在5013美元左右，近一个月累计涨幅超过11%。不过，从全局看，代币化商品市场规模仅约8亿至10亿美元，与全球数万亿美元的现货黄金市场相比仍十分有限。

尽管ETF与机构采用等利好不断，但自去年年中以来，加密市场资金持续流出，比特币价格表现却更接近美国高增长软件股，而非传统避险资产。Grayscale最新研究指出，比特币与美国软件板块之间的相关性显著上升，显示其交易逻辑更偏向成长型资产。 数据显示，自2024年初至今，比特币与美国软件股走势高度同步。在近期抛售中，两者几乎同向波动，说明本轮下跌更多源于成长型资产整体去风险化，而非加密行业自身问题。资金流向也印证了这一点：美国投资者主导了近期抛售，相关比特币ETP自2月初以来出现约3.18亿美元净流出，进一步压制价格。

Bitcoin ETFs have seen increased institutional demand, with notable inflows despite overall outflows. Analysts label recent downturns as the weakest bear case in Bitcoin's history, indicating resilience among early investors amid rising financialization concerns.

Kaiko Research indicates that Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains stable, with current price corrections aligning with historical patterns following a peak. The cycle consists of accumulation, halving, a surge to a new high, and subsequent corrections.

Starpath 在 Pi 幣測試網上線，提供無風險環境讓用戶實驗交易熟悉 Web3，開發者可測試應用。作為教育橋樑轉化複雜概念為實踐。但現實殘酷：2 月遷移 3 億創最大衝擊，連跌逼近 0.14，OTC 拋售暗湧。技術進步改變不了供應洪流壓垮需求。

XRP 連漲兩天，焦點轉向 2 月 10 日白宮市場結構法案會議，預期就穩定幣收益率達共識提振需求。XRP ETF 流入強勁，但比特幣 ETF 資金流出。2 月短期仍看跌，但中期看漲。

根據 GreekLive 分析，近期市場趨於平穩但隱含波動率（IV）明顯下行，導致一週期波動風險溢價（VRP）從上週 +20% 快速降至 -25%，跌幅約 45%，創歷史紀錄。這反映市場正迅速下調對後續波動的預期，但比特幣波動具顯著聚集性，機構情緒或過度樂觀。選擇權市場非理性程度上升，歷史經驗顯示比特幣底部尚未確認。

派幣連續第三個交易日走低，跌勢與主網穩定遷移吻合，可能加劇拋售壓力。週一 3,306 萬枚派幣轉移到主網，使 2 月份轉移總量達約 3 億枚。支援派幣的 CEX 過去 24 小時錄得 324,152 枚流出，通常從 CEX 提現顯示拋售壓力緩解，但這表明供應壓力主要來自場外管道包括 OTC。