Prediction Market

On Polymarket prediction markets, the bet titled “Will Jesus return before 2027?” has a cumulative trading volume of over $55 million, and the No side payout odds are 96%. While many people are betting on No to seek steady returns, experts warn that there may be hidden costs due to the ambiguity of the settlement rules and associated risks.

Because Trump’s threatening remarks toward Iran, the prediction platform Kalshi shows the likelihood of him being impeached rising from 22.1% to 28.3%. At the same time, voices are calling for invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump, indicating that his comments have heightened political tensions and even influenced the stance of some conservative supporters.

Polymarket’s predicted probability for WTI crude oil falling to $90 in April 2026 has risen to 89%. The 24-hour increase is 35%, and the total trading volume is over $16.86M. Currently, the WTI crude oil price is $92.68, down 16.01% over the past 24 hours.

Seven members of the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter to the CFTC Chair, questioning the regulator’s lack of enforcement regarding insider trading in prediction markets related to Iran and Venezuela, and requesting answers to six questions from the CFTC. The incident has sparked concerns about the legitimacy of prediction markets and the strength of regulatory oversight, and the CFTC has pledged to pursue selective enforcement. As the market expands, in the absence of clear regulations, investors need to pay attention to possible policy changes and their impacts.

As U.S.-Iran tensions ease, asset prices rebound. Some traders have predicted the market with pinpoint accuracy to profit from ceasefire gains, sparking discussion about insider trading. Although there is no evidence yet, frequent cases have challenged market fairness, and regulators have begun to pay attention. Polymarket has also updated its rules to strengthen market integrity. The industry faces a key question of balancing openness with compliance.

Three newly created wallets profited a combined $484,575 on Polymarket betting that the US and Iran would agree to a ceasefire by Tuesday, in the latest event to raise suspicion of insider trading. The wallets were created and funded on Tuesday and had no prior activity before betting on Polymarket

Gate News message, April 8, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, four suspected insider-trading addresses profited by about $663k by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before April 7. Most of these wallets were created on April 7 and funded after that; a few hours before the ceasefire news was released, they bought the “YES” option. Previously, there was no activity record—only a bet on this event—entered at extremely low odds (3.9%).

Gate News update: On April 8, according to the ADI Predictstreet official website, the prediction market platform ADI Predictstreet will go live officially on April 9. Previously, the platform had reached a multi-year cooperation agreement with FIFA, becoming the official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently rebounded to $71,520, but due to a Resolv USD private key leak, some vault liquidity is insufficient, and Trading Protocol warns users to deposit with caution. Fox and Kalshi have partnered to integrate prediction market data into news programs, demonstrating the importance of data in media. The market is reacting sharply to developments in the Middle East; investors are waiting for Trump’s decisions, which is affecting overall market sentiment.

Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform that permits users to trade shares using USDC stablecoin, is pleased to announce the launch of a stablecoin and an order book upgrade. For this purpose, it is integrated with DO Network, a high-performance, decentralized

Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz’s traffic volume returning to normal by April 30 has risen to 57%. Current trading volume is about $4.07 million. The event will be determined based on IMF PortWatch data, and Iran’s foreign minister said the strait can be safely navigated in the next two weeks.

Polymarket has seen a significant revenue surge, generating $7.1 million in fees in just one week, placing it as a top player in decentralized finance. Recent partnerships and upgrades signal strong growth, though regulatory challenges persist.

Gate News message, on April 7, the U.S. news network Fox News officially integrated the Kalshi platform, using prediction market mechanisms to add accountability to news reporting while encouraging content to be closer to the facts. As one of the three major mainstream U.S. news networks, Fox News hopes to use prediction markets to eliminate bias, strengthen accuracy, and ensure that news reporting is not influenced by political stances, with correctness as the guiding principle.

The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals ruled that the state of New Jersey lacks the authority to bar Kalshi, a sports-betting prediction market platform regulated by the CFTC, from launching sports event contracts, finding that federal law takes precedence over state law. Although Kalshi prevailed, experts say this is only a temporary victory, and the Supreme Court will ultimately need to decide the jurisdiction issue.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran by May 15 has fallen to 37%. The total trading volume of this event contract exceeds $107 million. U.S. Vice President Vance reiterated the final deadline for Iran, while Trump threatened that there will be strikes if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

Gate News message, April 7, Kalshi’s latest data shows that the market is betting on a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in April this year, and a 2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. As of now, trading volume in this prediction market has exceeded $10 million.