According to CryptoQuant data analysis, miner exchange inflow (Miner Exchange Flow) has been continuously increasing from 2023 to 2025, which typically indicates that miners are transferring Bitcoin to exchanges for selling, and these transfers constitute a potential selling pressure. Looking closely at the moving average lines in the chart, such as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA 50) and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA 100), these averages are still maintained at relatively high levels and have not shown sharp downward breaks.
From a more macro perspective, during the period from 2017 to 2020, miner inflow remained at medium to low levels, and the selling did not completely destroy the upward trend in prices. At that time, miners usually gradually reduced their holdings as prices rose. At the peak in 2021, miner inflow increased, but prices continued to hit new highs, indicating that although miners were selling, demand was stronger. This situation is similar to early 2024 to 2025, when miner selling alone was not enough to reverse the overall trend, suggesting that the market was absorbing this supply, which is a clear signal of a strong market trend.
During the bear market in 2022, the amount of funds transferred by miners to Binance was large and sustained, and prices entered a sharp decline. This indicates that miners were forced to sell due to cost pressures at that time. Considering that the current average breakeven cost for miners is about $50,000, unless prices approach this level, miners may not turn extremely bearish. Historically, miner selling tends to reinforce a bear market trend. 2022 is a typical example where miner selling pressure had a strong impact on market direction. In 2021, miner supply was absorbed by buyers, but in 2022, this was not the case. The situation is similar to the price dropping from $122,000 to $80,000 without sufficient demand support.
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