Since early 2026, Bitcoin prices have continued to strengthen, recently approaching $95,000 and hitting a six-week high, with overall market sentiment in cryptocurrencies clearly improving. However, from derivatives and on-chain data, this rally is still in the “confirmation stage,” with traders generally remaining cautious yet optimistic.
Data shows that Bitcoin’s price has risen from around $87,600 at the beginning of the year to above $94,000, an increase of nearly 8% year-to-date. However, in contrast to the price rebound, Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest has not expanded simultaneously, currently around $31.4 billion, significantly below previous highs, indicating that leverage funds have not flowed back in large scale. This suggests that the current rise is mainly driven by new spot demand and short covering, rather than a broad risk appetite revival.
Looking at the order book structure, sell orders still dominate near key price levels, combined with the persistent negative premium on US mainstream CEXs, indicating that US investors’ spot buying remains relatively cautious. Meanwhile, the options market is sending more positive signals. The short-term put skew has significantly decreased, and some funds are beginning to position in medium- to long-term bullish Bitcoin options, reflecting an improving market expectation for volatility and upward potential.
At the institutional level, Bitcoin ETF fund inflows have been steady since January, serving as an important support for the price. Institutional demand, seasonal liquidity improvements, and a rebound in risk asset preferences together form the macro backdrop for Bitcoin’s current rally. However, analysts point out that to effectively break through $95,000 and open up larger upside space, a synchronized increase in trading volume and open interest data is still required for confirmation.
In the short term, $92,000 and $90,000 are seen as important support zones. If ETF fund inflows slow down or the macro environment shifts to a tighter stance, a phased correction cannot be ruled out. Overall, the upward trend of Bitcoin has not been broken, but whether it enters a new strong bull market still depends on further validation from trading volume, derivatives positions, and spot demand.
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