Gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum—it's recommended that retail investors only participate in gold; avoid the other three.

🌙 Dragon Fly Official insight: Crypto markets are navigating a challenging phase. Overnight, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $28,500, and Ethereum (ETH) struggled near $1,800, marking a notable pullback in both price and market sentiment. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization slipped below $3 trillion, signaling broad-based weakness and triggering renewed debate between bulls and bears. 1️⃣ On-Chain Insights BTC Exchange Flows: Dragon Fly’s monitoring of on-chain data shows a significant increase in BTC inflows to exchanges, especially at spot exchanges. Historically, such inflows indicate short-term selling pressure, as holders prepare to liquidate at perceived highs or mitigate losses. Notably, clusters of addresses that bought around $30K–$31K are underwater, creating potential capitulation zones. ETH Staking & Participation: In contrast, ETH’s staked supply remains stable, with minimal movement in staking contracts. Dragon Fly notes this as a sign that long-term holders maintain conviction, reducing the risk of a massive sell-off from the Ethereum base. Active addresses have slightly decreased, reflecting cautious retail engagement, yet institutional flows suggest neutral-to-positive positioning in ETH, likely anticipating a rebound from support levels. Whale Activity & Liquidity Pools: Large BTC wallets (>1,000 BTC) remain largely stable, with few exits during the current pullback. Dragon Fly highlights that whales are observing liquidity, ready to absorb retail selling if prices reach key support zones. This alignment suggests potential volatility compression followed by rebound in mid-term timeframes. 2️⃣ Market Structure & Technical Analysis BTC Technical Levels: Immediate support: $28,000–$28,500 Critical support: $27,200–$27,500 (historical accumulation zone) Resistance if rebound occurs: $30,500–$31,000 Dragon Fly observes that the overnight drop created a lower low, forming a short-term bearish pattern, yet this is consistent with cyclical retracements observed in past BTC bear-bull transitions. Traders should watch volume and relative strength index (RSI): oversold conditions around $28K may provide favorable entry points for disciplined dip buyers. ETH Technical Levels: Immediate support: $1,780–$1,800 Key support: $1,700 (psychological + historical) Resistance: $1,900–$2,000 Ethereum’s pullback aligns with BTC, but Dragon Fly notes ETH’s lower volatility relative to BTC. This implies ETH could stabilize earlier, supported by staking activity and ongoing DeFi demand. Total Market Cap Analysis: The total market cap dipping below $3 trillion reflects broad sector-wide retracement, not just BTC or ETH weakness. Altcoins with strong fundamentals, on-chain utility, and active development are likely to see relative resilience, while speculative tokens may face sharper corrections. 3️⃣ Macro Context & Market Drivers Global Risk Sentiment: Dragon Fly notes correlations between crypto and global risk assets. Overnight weakness coincided with: Rising U.S. Treasury yields Equity market pullbacks in tech-heavy indices Macro commentary around inflation persistence This macro backdrop amplifies short-term crypto volatility, making timing and risk management critical for traders. Liquidity & Exchange Behavior: In addition, stablecoin supply on exchanges has remained relatively stable, which suggests capital for dip buying exists, but concentration among a few large holders may influence price swings sharply if leveraged positions unwind. 4️⃣ Sentiment & Positioning Fear & Greed Index: Extreme fear, signaling contrarian opportunities. Retail sentiment: Cautious, reduced buying, increased holding. Institutional sentiment: Neutral, waiting for confirmation of bottom or key breakout levels. Dragon Fly highlights that extreme fear historically precedes short-term rebounds, but caution is warranted: market structure must confirm support before aggressive positions. 5️⃣ Trading Opportunities & Strategy BTC: Potential for short-term dip buying around $28,000–$28,500 with tight stops below $27,500. Swing trades possible if BTC consolidates and breaks back above $30K, targeting $31,000–$32,000. ETH: Selective accumulation between $1,780–$1,800, with attention to staking activity for timing. Watch for ETH/BTC correlation to identify relative strength trades. Altcoins: Focus on projects with strong fundamentals, active networks, and low speculative supply. Avoid crowded trades in high-risk altcoins until market stability returns. Risk Management: Dragon Fly emphasizes disciplined position sizing, stop-loss adherence, and capital allocation. Volatility can be extreme; traders should limit exposure to what they can afford to lose. 6️⃣ Key Takeaways BTC and ETH are under short-term pressure, but long-term structures and on-chain indicators suggest opportunities for selective accumulation. Market-wide fear is elevated — contrarian approaches may pay off, but timing is essential. Strong altcoins may outperform in a downtrend, while weaker projects face sharper corrections. Institutional capital is waiting on the sidelines, meaning dips may be absorbed if support holds. Macro factors and global risk sentiment are influencing crypto, so traders must integrate broader market context. Dragon Fly believes that patient, research-driven strategies aligned with market structure and on-chain insights will outperform purely reactive trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning: Crypto trading carries high risk; losses can exceed deposits. Always trade responsibly and manage risk. ‍#CryptoMarketPullback

#GT $BTC BTC $ETH我的周末交易计划#RiskManagement One of the largest single-day liquidation events in crypto history has just been recorded, ranking inside the top ten of all time. This level of destruction hasn’t been seen since the brutal cycles of 2021, when billions were wiped out in a matter of hours and hundreds of thousands of traders were forced out of the market. If we review historical liquidation data, it becomes clear that bull markets are not gentle. In fact, most of the top liquidation events happened during so-called bull runs, where leverage, greed, and overconfidence peaked at the same time. That’s why bull markets often come with violent crashes, not smooth rallies. Many people keep asking: 👉 “Is this a bull market or a bear market?” My answer remains simple: Stop labeling the market. Treat crypto like a high-risk financial derivatives arena — adapt, survive, and trade what you see, not what you hope. This week was a harsh reality check for longs. Liquidity vanished, emotions exploded, and profits became extremely difficult to extract. The intensity of this move is second only to recent major black-swan style events. 📊 BTC Analysis Support zone: 71,000 – 74,500 If this range fails, the market may revisit the sub-60,000 region. Resistance zone: 84,000 – 86,600 Currently, overall market liquidity is shrinking. Capital is flowing aggressively into gold, silver, and US equities, while meme tokens continue to absorb speculative money without creating sustainable value. Over the last two years, crypto has already consumed years of future liquidity, draining an estimated 50–70% of active funds. For a healthy recovery, pure speculation must cool down. Meme-driven cycles rely on old users constantly taking over risk — this is not a long-term solution. The promotion of gold, silver, and stocks across major platforms may also indicate doubts around BTC’s absolute “digital gold” narrative. This is a double-edged sword: diversification is good, but excessive capital rotation weakens consensus. You cannot have BTC, memes, gold, silver, and stocks all standing strong at the same time. Markets always force a choice — and those choices are painful. After major structural shifts, retail despair often comes in waves. 📊 ETH Analysis Support: 2,225 Resistance: 2,749 I expected downside pressure this week, but the speed of the drop exceeded expectations. Single orders triggered violent cascades — ETH collapsed hundreds of dollars, while BTC saw one-day drops rarely seen outside panic conditions. In yesterday’s noise-filled market battles, retail traders paid the final bill. When chaos spreads, no one is truly untouched. 🧠 Trading Strategy ✔ Hold positions with discipline ✔ Focus on T-trading (buy low, sell rebounds) ❌ Don’t all-in and pray ❌ Don’t freeze your capital and do nothing If unsure, reduce exposure, observe patiently, and wait for clarity. Survival > Hero trades.