Bitcoin and Altcoin Market: Current Technical Outlook

#数字资产市场动态 In the winter of 2017, the repair shop was left unfinished, with debts of 500,000 yuan piling up like a mountain, and only 50,000 yuan left in the pocket. That was the most desperate moment. I stayed in the internet cafe for three days and nights, frantically digging through data and calculating probabilities. In the end, I made a ruthless decision: to bet all 50,000 yuan, averaging 6,500 yuan per $BTC, and bought 7 $BTC with that hard-earned money. This was a life-or-death gamble. Fate is so ironic. That winter, Bitcoin surged wildly, increasing 16 times over the year. 50,000 yuan turned into 800,000 yuan. I was so excited I went crazy, even thinking about selling my house to add to my position—until the 2018 bubble burst instantly. The market evaporated three-quarters of its value, and 800,000 yuan shrank to 200,000 yuan in an instant. That night, sitting in front of the ATM, staring at the balance slip, I finally understood a truth: unrealized gains are not real money; prosperity cannot be held onto, and everything can become worthless in an instant. Starting in 2022, I completely abandoned the strategy of chasing highs and selling lows. I shifted to mining machine hosting and liquidity mining, staying low-key and patient for three years. My account steadily grew to 3.25 million yuan. Later, someone asked me how many hundredfold coins I had caught. I smiled and replied, "Survive first, then talk about making money. Risk control is the only bottom line." After several ups and downs, I have lived by three seemingly simple but actually brutal rules: **First, principal is fundamental.** When a new coin rises, first withdraw the principal, and let the profits continue to grow. No matter how deep the decline, it won't hurt your bones. **Second, cognition is the ceiling.** Don't touch what you don't understand. The market offers so many opportunities; most of the pies that aren't yours are traps. **Third, position size is armor.** Stick to the 5311 rule—50% stable assets, 30% potential targets, 10% high risk, and 10% cash. During a bear market, drawdowns can be controlled within 15%. Don't rush in a bull market, don't scream in a bear market. The true winners in the crypto market are not those chasing highs, but those who stick to discipline, protect their principal, and can keep a clear mind. Opportunities are everywhere every day, but only those who live long enough get to enjoy them.

#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 Once again, it's a game of expectations management. A single remark from Trump has rewritten the entire crypto market's liquidity imagination. Here's the situation: the market was originally confident that Kevin Hassett would succeed as Federal Reserve Chair, with traders betting on a dovish policy after his appointment—loosening policy would boost risk assets. Bitcoin was on a good rise, and everyone was guessing whether the next target would be 100,000. And then? Trump turned around and said: "I think he's in a pretty good position right now." The market instantly froze. On Polymarket, Hassett's probability plummeted, while another candidate, Kevin Warsh, surged close to 60%. That guy is known for being hawkish. Understand? This is called a reversal of expectations. In crypto markets, what we’re trading is essentially future money—imagination about the central bank’s faucet. When that imagination shifts, prices must adjust accordingly. A hawkish stance means the environment of high interest rates will continue, and liquidity won't be released as quickly. For risk assets driven by dovish expectations—including Bitcoin—this is a short-term pressure. The cooling of the rally is just how it is. But don’t be too pessimistic. This is just a short-term emotional shock; in the long run, fundamentals still matter. While Fed personnel changes are significant, the development narrative of the crypto ecosystem itself is deeper. A policy message can cause volatility, but it doesn’t change the overall industry direction. In this market, news is the fuse, but trend is the backbone. Monitor risks carefully, manage them well, don’t get panicked by a single message, and don’t underestimate the destructive power of macro black swans. Keep observing, find the right rhythm, and we’ll keep moving forward.