BlockBeats News, January 16 — The market is entering a new phase dominated by policy signals, as the four-year cycle model of Bitcoin, long considered the core narrative, is weakening. Analysts point out that the influence of politics and macro policies on prices is gradually surpassing on-chain factors such as halving events.
Although the US stock market is expected to perform strongly in 2025, Bitcoin's performance has been relatively lagging, reflecting that the market is more driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite. Under traditional models, the cycle should be entering its late stage in early 2026, but current trends indicate investors are delaying this phase, with policy factors taking the lead.
Institutional analysts believe that pre-election fiscal stimulus and the blurred boundaries between fiscal and monetary policies are creating an environment similar to “financial repression.” In the context of high government spending and suppressed real interest rates, traditional bonds and credit become less attractive, increasing the appeal of digital assets.
Looking ahead to 2026, the market generally believes that Bitcoin's trajectory will depend more on policy directions and regulatory developments, especially the US crypto market structure legislation. Analysts note that institutional demand driven by ETFs remains a long-term support, but policy changes will determine whether institutional funds further enter the market.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin Price Discovery Mechanism Shifts to Derivatives-Driven Model, 2024 ETF Approval Becomes Key Turning Point
Bitcoin's price mechanism is shifting from spot-driven dynamics to derivative ecosystem influences, with the introduction of financial instruments like futures and options significantly shaping price discovery. Investors are adopting more sophisticated strategies, incorporating Bitcoin into macro asset allocation frameworks, reflecting the market structure's increasing impact on price formation.
GateNews5m ago
Bitcoin Slips Below $70,000 as Fed Rate Pause and Oil Surge Pressure Markets
Bitcoin declined to $70,000 due to steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve and rising energy prices, leading to $600 million in liquidations and increased market volatility, particularly affecting altcoins.
CryptoBreaking6m ago
XRP Climbs 3% Past $1.47 as Breakout Extends on Bitcoin-Led Rally
Key Takeaways
XRP broke above $1.426 resistance after months of consolidation, jumping to $1.47 on surging volume
Trading volume spiked over 250% during the move, indicating strong participation in the breakout
Activity on the XRP Ledger continues climbing, with tokenized real-world assets
CryptoBreaking11m ago
Bitcoin $20,000 Put Option Becomes Third Most Popular Strike Price Before CEX Quarterly Expiration
Before Bitcoin quarterly options expiration, the $20,000 put strike became the third most popular strike price, reflecting traders' expectations for extreme downside scenarios. Despite elevated market panic sentiment, call options still slightly outnumber put options, with overall sentiment leaning bullish.
GateNews43m ago
Zcash attracts attention for its privacy features, with a current market capitalization of $4 billion, representing 0.3% of the market share.
Bitcoin still dominates the digital currency market with a market share of approximately 90%. Zcash is rising due to its privacy features, with a market value of around $4 billion, facing growth momentum. If Zcash's market share increases to 5%, its value could potentially grow 18 times.
GateNews44m ago
Polkadot’s AltRank Exploded to #1 While $DOT Price Stayed Down – The Signal Was There Weeks Ago
Something interesting has been happening with Polkadot, and most people probably missed it.
While the DOT price has been sitting relatively low compared to its all-time highs, another metric was quietly flashing a strong signal. AltRank, a metric from LunarCrush, jumped from 109 to 1 in just o
CaptainAltcoin1h ago
