2月25日消息，在特朗普发表国情咨文前夕，比特币价格一度快速走高，从约64000美元上探至接近66000美元，引发市场对政策预期驱动行情的讨论。尽管短线反弹提振了部分加密市场情绪，但知名黄金支持者Peter Schiff对这轮上涨表达了明显质疑，认为其更可能源于围绕政策讲话的投机资金提前布局，而非真实需求改善。
Peter Schiff在社交平台发文指出，交易员可能押注特朗普在国情咨文中提及比特币，从而提前买入制造上涨动能。他强调，如果讲话中未提及加密资产，市场可能出现情绪回落；即便提及，也不排除“利好兑现即抛售”的走势。这种预期驱动型波动在宏观事件周期中较为常见，通常伴随高波动与短周期资金博弈。
从数据表现来看，比特币当前价格约64900美元附近，日内涨幅约3%至4%，但周线和月线仍分别处于下跌区间，显示中期趋势尚未完全修复。市场同时关注65000美元这一关键心理关口，一旦失守，短线多头动能或进一步减弱。
Peter Schiff此前还曾多次警告比特币可能面临深度回调，并再次强调其对“数字黄金”叙事的质疑，认为投资者不应将其替代传统避险资产。与此同时，宏观不确定性与政策预期仍在影响加密市场波动结构，使事件驱动行情更容易放大短期价格摆动。
值得注意的是，本次国情咨文内容主要聚焦经济议题，并未明确提及比特币或加密行业，这也导致部分交易员的乐观情绪边际降温。短期来看，市场将密切观察政策信号、资金流向及关键支撑位表现，以判断比特币上涨是阶段性反弹还是事件驱动后的技术性修正。
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