2月24日消息，受特朗普关税政策不确定性升温及宏观风险情绪走弱影响，比特币在亚洲交易时段一度跌破63000美元关口，短线延续此前回调趋势。数据显示，本周BTC累计跌幅接近7%，价格已回落至2月初以来的阶段低位，引发市场对“比特币价格是否进入深度调整”的讨论。
据CoinDesk统计，当前市场抛压不仅来自宏观政策预期，还叠加人工智能板块动荡带来的风险资产再定价。交易员Matt Howells-Barby指出，关税政策反复与地缘政治紧张局势正在削弱短期风险偏好，导致比特币与美股同步走弱。
从技术结构观察，60000美元被视为关键支撑位，若该区间失守，市场可能测试50000美元至55000美元区间的历史需求带。这一区域同时对应多周期筹码密集区，对中长期趋势具有重要参考意义。
历史周期数据显示，比特币往往在50周均线跌破100周均线（典型熊市交叉）后才逐步形成阶段性底部，该信号曾出现在2018年与2022年熊市尾声。目前50周均线仍显著高于100周均线，意味着从周期指标角度看，BTC尚未进入典型的“底部确认阶段”。
值得注意的是，移动平均线属于滞后指标，其交叉更多反映已发生的趋势而非即时预测。因此，在宏观政策压力、风险资产波动及市场流动性收紧背景下，比特币短期波动率可能继续上升，投资者正密切关注63000美元与60000美元支撑区的防守情况，以及是否出现更深层的技术性回调信号。
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