Tom Lee 旗下分析师：ETH 最低跌至 1367 美元，但未来 12 个月隐含回报率 81%

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ethereum news Market Analysis Price Prediction

2026-02-19 16:44:45

ETH-0,68%

ChainCatcher 消息，Tom Lee 旗下基金 Fundstrat 数字资产策略主管 Sean Farrell 发表最新以太坊分析，当前 ETH 的平均成本为 2,241 美元，而现价为 1,934 美元，投资者平均亏损 22%。将当前跌幅与历史低点进行比较，在 2022 年投资者平均最大亏损达 39%，2025 年平均最大亏损 21%，将这两个数据分别应用到当前 2,241 美元的平均成本上，意味着 ETH 可能跌至低点 1,367 美元或 1,770 美元。

根据 2017 年以来的已实现亏损百分位分析未来收益，目前的平均亏损处于历史最高水平的 9%，属于较高损失水平。隐含 12 个月回报率为 +81%。这表明以太坊价格已接近底部。从长远来看，以太坊的风险/回报比看起来是积极的。Tom Lee 本人转发该分析表示，这有助于思考投资者资金流动以及在低点附近的仓位配置。

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