比特币或创2018年熊市以来最长连跌纪录，跌幅逼近历史极值

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bitcoin news Market Analysis Price Volatility

Source: 深潮TechFlow

2026-02-17 01:24:30

BTC-4,13%

ADX-4,94%

BlockBeats 消息，2 月 17 日，据 Decrypt 报道，比特币若 2 月收跌，将录得连续第五个月下跌，创下自 2018 年熊市以来最长连跌纪录。目前 2 月跌幅已达 13.98%。

比特币自 2025 年 10 月历史高点回落以来，累计跌幅已达 52.44%，距离 2018 年熊市 56.26% 的最大回撤仅差 3.82 个百分点，用时仅 123 天。

整体加密市场总市值报 2.33 万亿美元，近 24 小时下跌 1.33%。恐惧与贪婪指数虽由 8 升至 12，但仍处于「极度恐惧」区间。预测市场 Myriad 交易者当前押注比特币先触及 55,000 美元而非 84,000 美元的概率为 60%。

技术面显示，比特币价格仍运行于 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA200）下方，且 EMA200 低于 EMA50，表明空头动能占优。相对强弱指数（RSI）为 34.7，处于偏空区间；平均趋向指数（ADX）达 56.4，显示当前下行趋势强劲。

分析指出，若要扭转趋势，比特币需重新站上 100,000 美元，或形成持续抬高低点的结构性反转形态。目前来看，市场仍处于历史上较为持续的下行阶段。

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