近期，比特币价格走势明显加剧波动。BTC 在快速下探后出现短暂反弹，但整体反弹力度偏弱，市场情绪依旧谨慎。当前影响价格走势的关键变量之一，是比特币长期持有者（Long-Term Holders）的行为变化。
链上数据显示，比特币长期持有者的盈利能力正在明显下降。过去几天，长期持有者的抛售活动有所增加，其30天供应量变化指标已跌至近20个月以来的最低水平。类似情况上一次出现是在2024年4月，彼时市场同样承受着较大的抛压。这一信号表明，部分长期持有者正在主动降低仓位，以锁定剩余利润、规避潜在风险。
从宏观链上指标来看，长期持有者净未实现盈亏（NUPL）已降至月度低点，意味着该群体的整体浮盈正在缩水。当利润空间被压缩时，长期持有者对价格下跌的敏感度会显著提高，从而加速防御性卖出。这种行为往往会在短期内抑制比特币价格反弹，因为市场供给增加，而新增需求并未同步放大。
不过，从历史经验看，当长期持有者NUPL进一步下探后，抛售压力往往会逐步减弱。部分持有者会选择观望，市场供应趋于稳定，为比特币价格企稳甚至反弹创造条件。
价格层面，截至目前，比特币徘徊在87,900美元附近，仍受制于88,200美元一线阻力。此前BTC一度跌破86,200美元支撑后迅速反弹，显示低位仍存在一定承接力量。短期来看，比特币有望再次测试90,300美元关口，但若长期持有者持续减仓，行情或将在高位震荡整理。
若后续链上抛压明显放缓，市场情绪改善，比特币价格不排除突破90,300美元并进一步上探至92,900美元区域的可能。这将成为判断比特币中期趋势是否转强的重要信号，同时也有助于修复市场信心。
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