Chứng khoán Zhongxin: Từ năm 2024, thị trường tàu mới toàn cầu sẽ bước vào giai đoạn "tăng cả về lượng lẫn giá"

The inevitable trend of aging and electrification of the global shipping fleet will drive the continuous expansion of ship replacement demand. From 2024, the global newbuilding market will enter a phase of simultaneous growth in quantity and price. The value of new ship orders will continue to increase, with an estimated investment demand of approximately $2.27 trillion from 2024 to 2034. The average annual demand for new ship orders will reach $206.4 billion, of which about 60% will be driven by fleet renewal demand. It is estimated that there will be a continuous supply-demand gap in the newbuilding market from 2024 to 2032, and the shipbuilding industry will clearly trend upward. Currently, the Clarkson’s newbuilding price index is 188 points. Based on the historical analysis of the past three shipbuilding cycles, the high point of this cycle’s Clarkson’s newbuilding price index is expected to be between 240 and 250 points, which is currently in the mid-term of this cycle’s upward trend.