Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown positive technical signals. The price successfully broke through a descending wedge pattern that had persisted for about two months, releasing a phased bullish signal, and the market initially anticipated a new rally. After weeks of consolidation, ETH’s technical structure has significantly improved, attracting short-term funds to re-enter.
However, just as the trend began to emerge, it faced selling pressure from whales. On-chain data shows that in the past three days, large wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH sold approximately 300,000 ETH, which at current prices amounts to about $970 million. This concentrated sell-off has significantly increased circulating supply and cast a shadow over Ethereum’s upside prospects.
Whales choosing to sell at key technical breakout points often indicate cautiousness about short-term gains. Large holders tend to realize profits when market sentiment warms and prices rebound. This behavior does not necessarily reverse the trend but can suppress upward momentum in the short term. If new demand cannot fully absorb the selling pressure, ETH prices may face volatility or even a correction. For traders, whale movements have become an important variable in the current Ethereum market.
Meanwhile, the behavior of long-term holders provides some support to the market. Since late December 2025, Ethereum’s activity metrics have declined significantly, indicating that long-term ETH holdings are mostly in a “dormant” state. This suggests that long-term investors have not sold off in large quantities due to the price rebound but continue to hold. This structure generally helps reduce volatility and the amount of sellable supply in the market, thereby offsetting some of the impact from whale sell-offs.
From a price perspective, Ethereum’s current trading price is around $3,265. The breakout pattern theoretically corresponds to approximately 29.5% upside, with a target price near $4,061. However, a more practical short-term focus is on key support levels. If ETH can stabilize above $3,287, the upside targets could initially be $3,447, and further up to $3,607.
Downside risks are also clear. If whale sell-offs continue to intensify, ETH could break below the $3,131 support and even fall into the $3,000 or $2,902 range. If this occurs, the current technical breakout will be considered a failure, and the market will re-enter a correction cycle.
Overall, Ethereum is currently in a phase where positive technical signals coexist with conflicting capital flows. The battle between whale sell-offs and long-term holders’ steadfastness will determine whether ETH continues its rebound or shifts into a consolidation and correction phase.
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