Memory shortage crisis heats up PS6! AI hijacks chips, next-generation consoles may be delayed until 2028

AI demand triggers the most severe memory shortage in 20 years, with PS6 and other next-generation consoles possibly delayed until 2028. Kingston’s vice president states that this is the most serious shortage in two decades, and estimates that prices will continue to rise until 2026. Experts predict console prices will increase by 10-15%, and PC prices by 30%. In November 2025, gaming hardware spending dropped 27%, with sales hitting the lowest level since 1995.

AI’s Memory Demand Sparks the Worst Shortage in 20 Years

Taiwan’s major memory module manufacturer, Kingston Information’s Vice President of Business, Chen Bo-shou, revealed in an interview with CommonWealth Magazine that this is the most severe shortage he has encountered in his 20 years in the industry. He analyzed that past memory shortages were mostly due to stockpiling by specific mobile phone brands, factory accidents, or technological transitions, but this time, it is caused by the structural shortage driven by AI demand.

This structural shortage is entirely different from previous cyclical fluctuations. Traditional memory shortages usually last for months and ease once capacity is increased or demand cools. However, the demand for memory in AI training and inference is growing exponentially. Tech giants like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft are building large-scale data centers, each requiring hundreds of thousands of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. This demand is not only massive in scale but also ongoing, forcing memory manufacturers to choose between AI clients and traditional customers.

Cameron Crandall, Kingston’s Data Center SSD Business Manager, issued a direct warning, stating that NAND flash memory costs are soaring and that this price increase is expected to continue until 2026. Consumers with upgrade needs are advised to purchase early. Such public warnings are rare among memory manufacturers, who usually avoid making pessimistic forecasts that could impact sales. The current supply-demand imbalance has become so severe that early customer notification is necessary.

Three Major Features of Memory Demand in the AI Era

Surge in Capacity Needs: A single AI model training requires hundreds of GBs or even TBs of memory, far exceeding traditional applications.

Higher Bandwidth Requirements: AI inference demands HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which costs several times more than standard DDR5.

Strong Continuity of Demand: AI data center construction cycles span several years, and memory needs will not disappear in the short term.

Gaming Consoles Face Cost and Pricing Dilemmas

Joost van Dreunen, Professor at NYU Stern School of Business, pointed out that memory accounts for about one-fifth of the total component cost of personal computers, which poses a heavy blow to manufacturers. He predicts that in the next one or two years, the prices of gaming consoles may rise another 10-15%, and with memory prices climbing again by 2026, PC prices could increase by as much as 30%.

Previously, console manufacturers could often offset costs through hardware subsidies and recoup expenses via game software and subscription services. But with memory acquisition costs soaring, the expected retail prices for next-generation consoles—already higher than their predecessors—may become unacceptably high. The PlayStation 5 Pro, launched in 2024 at $699, already sparked strong player complaints. If the PS6’s price surpasses $800 or even $900 due to memory cost increases, sales could face a disastrous decline.

Console makers hope that memory manufacturers will expand infrastructure and increase capacity during this period, bringing prices back to reasonable levels. However, major memory suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron prioritize AI clients with high profit margins over the low-margin consumer electronics market. This prioritization means that gaming consoles may remain at the end of the memory supply chain for the foreseeable future.

Reports indicate that some console manufacturers are internally debating whether to delay the launch of next-generation consoles originally scheduled for 2027-2028. Such delays are driven not only by cost considerations but also by cautious market demand assessments. When hardware prices are high and consumer purchasing power is weak, rushing new product launches could backfire.

Player Spending Hits 30-Year Low, Sounding Alarm

Data from market tracking firm Circana shows that in November 2025, consumer spending on gaming hardware dropped 27%, with unit sales reaching the lowest level since 1995. Meanwhile, the average selling price of new gaming devices hit a monthly record high. This “price up, volume down” pattern is a dangerous market signal, indicating that consumers are voting with their feet against high-priced products.

Analysts note that tariffs have increased manufacturing costs, and the lack of blockbuster game titles has failed to drive sales, leading to continued price increases for consoles this year. Four years after its launch, the PlayStation 5 still lacks killer exclusive titles, and Xbox Series X/S sales are far below expectations. If consumer spending tightens further, console manufacturers may have no choice but to delay new product launches to avoid disastrous sales.

The 1995 era was a golden age for gaming, with the original PlayStation launching and Nintendo 64 on the horizon, fueling high consumer enthusiasm. Today, 30 years later, sales have fallen below that era, indicating a potential structural shift in the gaming console market. The rise of subscription-based cloud gaming, mobile gaming proliferation, and the revival of PC gaming through devices like Steam Deck are all eroding the traditional console market.

From the perspective of PS6, Sony faces multiple challenges. Rising memory costs push up hardware prices, but weak consumer purchasing power limits pricing flexibility. Forcing the release of a high-priced console could repeat the early failure of PlayStation 3 (priced at $599, leading to poor sales). Delaying the launch to wait for costs to decrease risks losing technological leadership and allowing competitors to seize market share. Regardless of the final decision, the gaming hardware market in the coming years is likely to face upward price pressure.