Bitcoin underperforming US stocks but continuously accumulated by whales, the true signal of BTC may be underestimated

Despite the US stock market hitting new highs repeatedly this year, Bitcoin (BTC) has significantly underperformed the stock market. However, on-chain data reveals an intriguing signal: in the context of sideways price movement and weak sentiment, Bitcoin whales continue to accumulate, making the market structure appear less pessimistic than it seems on the surface.

First, a key change comes from exchange data. Recently, the monthly reserve changes of Bitcoin on exchanges have turned negative, indicating that the amount of BTC withdrawn from exchanges exceeds the amount deposited. Typically, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges are seen as a sign that investors are choosing to hold long-term rather than engage in short-term trading. While this phenomenon can occur in both bull and bear markets, sustained outflows reduce immediate selling pressure and reinforce confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Second, the holder structure is changing. According to Santiment data, the number of wallets holding at least 1 Bitcoin has decreased by about 2.2% from the March high this year, indicating some small and medium investors are exiting. Meanwhile, large holders are increasing their positions against the trend, accumulating over 136,000 BTC during the same period. This pattern of “retail investors exiting while whales accumulate” often appears at market bottoms or during medium- to long-term strategic phases.

In terms of price performance, Bitcoin has recently been trading within a narrow range, showing a clear weakness compared to US stock indices. David Schassler, head of VanEck’s multi-asset solutions, pointed out that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin’s performance relative to the Nasdaq 100 index has lagged by nearly 50%. However, he believes this underperformance mainly reflects a short-term decline in risk appetite and liquidity pressures, rather than a fundamental change in Bitcoin’s investment logic.

On a macro level, funds are temporarily flowing into high-certainty stock assets, putting pressure on high-volatility, high-beta crypto assets. However, once the global liquidity environment improves and market risk appetite rebounds, Bitcoin’s resilience is often quickly amplified.

Overall, although Bitcoin’s current price trend remains weak, on-chain indicators such as exchange BTC outflows and whale accumulation are building strength for a medium- to long-term rally. For market participants focused on Bitcoin’s long-term investment value, this phase of “price lagging and structural strengthening” is often more worth paying attention to than chasing short-term gains.