Fidelity’s Global Macro Research Director Jurien Timmer, who has been long-term optimistic about Bitcoin, has recently become more cautious. He warns that Bitcoin is likely to have completed another 4-year cycle and will enter a correction phase lasting up to a year, with even the possibility of a “Crypto winter.”
Jurien Timmer pointed out that, based on historical experience, Bitcoin’s price movements have always followed repeating cycle patterns. From historical laws and time structures, this current rally aligns closely with multiple past bull and bear transitions.
He specifically mentioned that Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $125,000 in October this year, after approximately 145 months of upward trend, which fully matches the expected range of historical models.
Jurien Timmer stated that Bitcoin’s bear market (commonly called “Crypto winter”) usually lasts about a year. Therefore, he believes that after the recent halving cycle, 2026 could be a “rest year” for Bitcoin. He said:
I remain long-term bullish on Bitcoin, but my concern is that, in terms of price and timing, Bitcoin has likely completed another 4-year halving cycle.
Since past Crypto winters have mostly lasted around a year, I think 2026 might be a temporary pause and a year of consolidation for Bitcoin. From a technical perspective, the key support zone is roughly between $65,000 and $75,000.
In contrast, Timmer’s outlook on gold is much more optimistic. He pointed out that gold has performed strongly since 2025, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin’s relative weakness this year. Additionally, he does not expect a “Mean Reversion” (where asset prices return to long-term averages) between the two in the short term.
According to his observations, gold is currently in a bullish trend, with a year-to-date increase of about 65%. It has outperformed the global money supply growth and has held most of its gains during recent market corrections, demonstrating typical bull market characteristics.
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