Will XRP continue to decline further despite the influx of capital into ETFs?

XRP Price Is at a Critical Turning Point as Technical Warning Signals Clash with a Strong Wave of Institutional Capital Inflows.

Despite continuous influxes into XRP spot ETFs, the price structure indicates increasing downward pressure. Therefore, the current XRP price forecast depends on whether historical risk models will overshadow long-term accumulation trends.

Notable Risk Signal: EMA Bands Turn Bearish

On the three-day chart, the EMA band structure has issued a cautious signal regarding XRP’s price prospects. According to Steph is Crypto, a recurring historical pattern has appeared as this indicator shifts to a downtrend.

Specifically, whenever the EMA band reverses downward and the price remains below it, the market often experiences prolonged deep correction cycles, rather than short-term adjustments. These bearish phases can last several months with losses ranging from 27% to 66%.

Source: Steph is Crypto, Note that the larger the decline when the EMA band maintains a negative trend over an extended period. The phases in 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2022 all show the consistent, non-exempt nature of this pattern: price breaks down, accumulates, and recovers slowly.

Currently, XRP is still trading below the EMA band, implying that short-term bearish risk remains present. Until the price recovers above the EMA, the XRP price projection remains fragile.

Institutional ETF Capital Flows: A New Long-term Catalyst for XRP

Despite technical pressures, XRP’s long-term outlook is strongly supported by the activity of major institutions.

Spot XRP ETFs have opened a legitimate investment channel, enabling large capital flows to access the market more conveniently and securely. This shift has changed perceptions of XRP within the traditional financial system.

ETF inflows into XRP have rapidly reached $1 billion in a short period, outpacing the growth rate of many other major crypto ETFs during their early stages. As a result, XRP is increasingly recognized as a legitimate market asset, with daily ETF trading continually removing XRP from circulating supply.

This process helps tighten XRP supply, and as demand rises, the price appreciation effect will be amplified. Clear legal status also encourages institutional investors to participate more confidently, facilitating XRP’s integration into traditional investment strategies.

Additionally, Ripple’s growing role in cross-border payments adds practical value to XRP, driving demand beyond mere speculation. These factors collectively provide a solid foundation for XRP’s long-term growth prospects.

Short-term Price Movement: Downtrend Still Dominates

Short-term trend analysis indicates that XRP price forecasts should remain cautious. According to data from CoinStats, XRP has declined approximately 1.35% in the most recent trading session, and the current price is approaching support levels rather than resistance on short-term charts.

XRP/USD Chart | Source: CoinStats, On the hourly chart, buying pressure has yet to regain dominance. If this situation persists, XRP is likely to fall toward the support zone at $1.98. This is the nearest short-term support target, while the daily chart shows the $2.00 region as a key psychological and structural threshold.

Losing this support zone could significantly increase downward pressure, potentially extending until the end of the month. Therefore, the short-term XRP price outlook remains defensive, waiting for confirmation of support levels.

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