WuTalk Daily Selected Crypto News - JPMorgan: The short-term key for Bitcoin lies in the risk of Strategy selling, with a mid-term theoretical valuation of around $170,000

1. JPMorgan: Bitcoin’s Short-term Key Lies in Strategy’s Sell-off Risk, Mid-term Theoretical Valuation Around $170,000

JPMorgan’s latest research report states that the key to Bitcoin’s short-term trend lies not in miner selling pressure, but in whether Strategy (MSTR) can maintain its enterprise value/Bitcoin holdings market value ratio (EV/BTC) above 1, thus avoiding BTC sell-offs. This ratio is currently around 1.13, and Strategy has already established $1.44 billion in reserves, enough to cover two years of interest and dividends, reducing the risk of forced coin sales. If MSCI does not ultimately remove it on January 15, both MSTR and BTC may see a strong rebound; even if it is removed, the negative impact is largely priced in. JPMorgan still maintains its mid-term price target model, with BTC’s theoretical valuation at around $170,000.

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2. Wang Yongli: Promoting RMB Stablecoins Has No Advantage Domestically or Internationally

Wang Yongli, former vice president of Bank of China, pointed out in an article that China already holds a global leading edge in mobile payments and digital RMB. Promoting RMB stablecoins domestically offers no advantage, and internationally there is little room for growth or influence. China should not follow the path of USD stablecoins and should not vigorously promote both onshore and offshore RMB stablecoin development. If China follows the USD stablecoin route to develop RMB stablecoins, not only will it be difficult to challenge the international status of USD stablecoins, but RMB stablecoins may even become subordinate to USD stablecoins, impacting national tax collection, foreign exchange management, and cross-border capital flows, and posing serious threats to RMB sovereignty and the stability of the monetary and financial system.

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3. Seven Major Chinese Financial Associations Issue Risk Warning Against Illegal Activities Involving Virtual Currency

The National Internet Finance Association of China, China Banking Association, China Securities Association, and four other major industry associations jointly issued a risk warning today, reiterating the domestic ban on any form of virtual currency and RWA token issuance, trading, and financing. Relevant institutions are prohibited from conducting business related to virtual currencies or real-world asset tokens. The public should be highly alert to all forms of virtual currency and real-world asset token business activities.

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4. IMF Warns Stablecoins May Trigger “Currency Substitution,” Undermine Central Bank Policy Effectiveness

The IMF’s latest report states that stablecoins can rapidly penetrate economic systems, potentially leading to “currency substitution” and weakening central banks’ control over liquidity and interest rates, with even higher risks in scenarios involving non-custodial wallets and cross-border usage. Currently, 97% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar. The IMF recommends that countries establish frameworks to prohibit digital assets from becoming legal tender. The report notes that stablecoins are growing rapidly compared to FX (foreign exchange) deposits in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes rising demand for stablecoins helps with government bond financing.

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