Cardano is over 85% higher than its peak in 2021, and the launch of the NIGHT Token is a key catalyst for December.

As of the end of November to early December, the trading price of Cardano (ADA) remained around $0.41, a decline of over 85% from its peak in 2021. It closed at $0.42 on November 25, with a slight fluctuation between $0.413 and $0.422 within 24 hours, rising about 1%. The spot trading volume exceeded $540 million, the on-chain Lock-up Position value was about $185 million, the DEX trading volume was about $1.8 million, and there were about 19,000 active Addresses, indicating a stable user base but a lack of new demand.

The data for derivatives is significantly different. According to Coinglass, the 24-hour ADA futures trading volume reached approximately $670 million, while the spot trading volume was only about $76 million, with open contracts totaling around $735 million. The huge gap between derivatives and spot reflects that the market is primarily driven by high-leverage short-term trading, with long-term buyers yet to make a significant entry.

In December, the price of ADA may fluctuate between $0.38 and $0.48. If it breaks through $0.45, it could rise to $0.50 to $0.55; if it falls below $0.40, it may retreat to the mid-range of $0.30. Overall, the technical outlook for ADA is still in a wide range of fluctuations, with insufficient volume and the resistance at the highs not yet re-tested.

Fundamentally, Cardano faces the problem of lagging behind in the competition of stablecoins and RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization), with these sectors expected to reach a scale of $4 trillion by 2030. Additionally, the ongoing disputes between the Cardano Foundation and founder Charles Hoskinson also affect organizational efficiency.

However, the market is paying attention to an important positive news: the Cardano Midnight sidechain and its token NIGHT will launch on December 8th. Midnight focuses on privacy and compliance capabilities, aiming to combine the robustness of the Cardano mainchain to provide a new privacy computing environment for enterprises and individuals, and is seen as a potential growth engine. If successfully implemented, it is expected to boost the value of its DeFi ecosystem.

Investors are also waiting for the U.S. SEC to potentially approve the first Cardano spot ETF, which would open the door for institutional funds to enter. Currently, the market size of Cardano stablecoins is only about $40 million, leaving significant room for expansion.

Historically, the current price range of ADA is similar to when it first broke through in 2017. After experiencing a peak in 2021 and a decline in 2022, it has remained in a consolidation phase over the past year. The launch of Midnight in December will be one of the key events to observe whether ADA can break its silence.