The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) is at risk of falling 12% as 'whales' withdraw capital.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading around 0.1525 USD at the time of writing this article on Saturday, as pressure from the bears continues to increase. Since the “flash crash” on October 10, which caused over 19 billion USD in cryptocurrency to be liquidated in just one day, demand for Dogecoin has remained significantly low.

The launch of spot Dogecoin ETFs in the US has only attracted modest capital inflows, with 365,000 USD on Wednesday and 1.8 million USD on Tuesday. As of Wednesday, DOGE ETFs have recorded a total accumulated net inflow of 2.16 million USD, while total net assets reached 6.48 million USD.

ETF DOGE Statistics | Source: SoSoValue## Dogecoin struggles as demand wanes

Large investors, also known as whales, continue to withdraw their funds from Dogecoin, increasing selling pressure in the market. According to the supply distribution index, the group holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens currently accounts for 11.34% of the total supply, a significant decrease from 15.11% on November 1 and 16.05% on October 1.

Distribution of Dogecoin supply | Source: SantimentThe sharp decline in the holdings of whales highlights the prevailing “maximum safety” sentiment dominating the cryptocurrency market. If this trend continues, the recovery of Dogecoin's price may be slow, while increasing the risk of this coin extending its downtrend to the 0.1000 USD level.

Technical Outlook: Dogecoin Pauses Recovery

Dogecoin is currently trading around 0.1536 USD, still below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.1771 USD, reflecting ongoing selling pressure. At the same time, the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are at 0.1936 USD and 0.2032 USD, respectively, still maintaining a downward trend, which may continue to hinder recovery efforts.

DOGE/USDT Daily Chart | Source: TradingViewThe MACD indicator shows a positive signal as the MACD line (green) is above the signal line (red), along with a positive histogram extending around the 0 mark, indicating that momentum is gradually improving.

However, the RSI at 42 is still below the neutral threshold of 50, limiting the recovery trend. The downtrend line from 0.3063 USD and the resistance level of 0.1901 USD are capping the upward momentum; a daily close above 0.1901 USD could open up opportunities for a stronger technical rebound. Conversely, if the momentum weakens and the RSI falls into the oversold territory, the bears may continue to dominate, prolonging the downtrend.

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