Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 threshold for the first time in months, and data published by Cryptoquant researchers suggest the move may echo signals that preceded the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin’s Price Action Mirrors 2022 Bear Market Setup, Cryptoquant Cautions
According to Cryptoquant’s report this week, the firm’s Bull Score Index dropped to zero — its lowest since June 2022 — signaling a shift to an “extremely bearish” posture.
The analysis highlights that bitcoin now trades below its 365-day moving average (MA) of $102,000, a technical and psychological level that previously marked the final line of defense before the 2022 downturn.
Researchers at Cryptoquant explain that failing to reclaim this moving average soon could “trigger a much larger correction” as market momentum continues to weaken. The 365-day MA, often considered the “ultimate support” of bull cycles, has turned into a pressure point once again for traders tracking long-term trends.
Source: Cryptoquant.com
Beyond the moving average, the firm’s onchain data points to the Traders’ Onchain Realized Price Bands as another warning indicator. Analysts estimate bitcoin could drift toward $72,000 — the minimum price band — within one to two months if prices do not recover above $100,000. The firm noted that this lower band has historically acted as support when traders realized losses, but persistent selling could push the market toward that lower target.
The report further references a network valuation framework based on Metcalfe’s law, identifying an additional support zone near $91,000. Cryptoquant researchers note that this “2x Metcalfe Value band” level previously anchored price activity between November 2024 and May 2025.
Cryptoquant researchers emphasized that these converging signals — from technical indicators to onchain metrics — suggest bitcoin’s current weakness is not isolated but reflects broad structural softness in the market’s fundamentals. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has been rangebound between $99,192 to $104,044.
FAQ
- **What does Cryptoquant’s Bull Score Index indicate?**It reflects overall market momentum and has dropped to zero, showing an extremely bearish outlook according to Cryptoquant researchers.
- **Why is the 365-day moving average significant?**Cryptoquant identifies it as bitcoin’s ultimate support line; falling below it previously marked the start of the 2022 bear market.
- **What price supports are analysts watching next?**Cryptoquant highlights $91,000 as network support and $72,000 as the potential next level if selling continues.
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