Bitwise CIO: Retail Capitulation Nears, but Bitcoin Could Still Hit $130K by Year-End

As the crypto market endures one of its toughest weeks this year, Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000, sparking widespread panic among retail investors. Many are calling it the return of the “crypto winter.” But not Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management — he believes this painful sell-off might actually be the spark for Bitcoin’s next major rally.

Retail panic, institutional calm “It’s the tale of two markets,” Hougan told CNBC. “Retail crypto investors are in maximum despair — leverage is getting wiped out, and sentiment is darker than I’ve ever seen.” To him, this despair signals a bottoming phase. While retail investors panic and exit positions, institutions remain confident, viewing the crash as a strategic buying opportunity. “When I talk to people on Wall Street and financial advisors, I still see strong enthusiasm,” he explained. “They’re excited to gain exposure to an asset class that, despite the correction, has delivered impressive yearly returns.”

ETF inflows remain resilient Despite the brutal sell-off, institutional money hasn’t vanished.

Hougan highlighted that major ETFs — such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) — continue to see steady inflows. Bitwise’s own Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) raised over $400 million in its first week. Even though Solana tokens have since dropped around 20%, Hougan says financial advisors are using this volatility as a teaching moment — helping clients understand long-term conviction and preparing to increase allocations. “We need to flush out weak hands,” Hougan said. “Once retail capitulates and the market hits bottom, buyers will come back — and that’s when we’ll see the next surge.”

Bitcoin could finish the year at a new high Hougan remains confident that, despite the chaos, Bitcoin could easily reenter a bullish phase.

“I think Bitcoin could end the year between $125,000 and $130,000,” he said. He also referenced Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, who recently predicted Bitcoin could reach $150,000. “Saylor’s prediction isn’t crazy,” Hougan noted. “Sellers are running out of steam, buyers are still hungry, and when those lines cross — that’s when the rally begins.”

Stocks drop, Bitcoin stands apart Although Bitcoin has fallen more than 12% in the past week, Hougan points out that it’s beginning to decouple from traditional markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq only dropped about 1%, but this divergence could signal Bitcoin’s growing independence from equities. “If equities stabilize or rebound slightly, Bitcoin has plenty of room to run,” he said. While retail traders abandon ship, institutions remain on board — calm, patient, and ready to strike again.

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