Surprising data shook Bitcoin: How have Fed expectations changed?

Two critical data regarding the US economy, closely monitored by global markets, have been announced. Weekly unemployment claims came in at 218,000, falling below the expected 235,000. This situation indicated a stronger picture in the labor market than anticipated.

On the other hand, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in the second quarter on an annualized basis. The market expectation was at the level of 3.3%. The growth data that came in above expectations revealed that the American economy maintains its resilient structure and that inflationary pressures may continue.

Following the data, the view that the Fed may not act hastily on interest rate cuts gained momentum in the markets. Strong GDP has narrowed the room for rate cuts while raising concerns that inflation could maintain its high trajectory.

Expectations for interest rate cuts remain strong but there is a decline

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of an interest rate cut in October is priced at 81.2 percent. However, this rate was at 92 percent the day before. The likelihood of an interest rate cut for December has also declined from 73 percent to 58.8 percent.

Data has shaken the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin fell below 111 thousand dollars for the first time in two weeks. Ether, on the other hand, broke the 4 thousand dollar support downwards and pulled back to 3 thousand 924 dollars.

Published: September 25, 2025 16:20