Gaspieldsd
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Age 8.1Year
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9- 9th Mean Reversion short positions Case Update
People in the crypto community belong to:
If you can't achieve small successes continuously, how can you talk about big successes and great results?
If we can't make predictions over short periods of time, how can we talk about major cycles and significant tops and bottoms?
Beyond the expected surface, stepping on unstable bubbles.
In the riskiest market, countering risks with unconventional strategies is the real trick.
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#BTC# Small survey, do you think the market has peaked?
BTC2.4%
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The market never waits for you to gather all the information.
Only after learning what needs to be learned and adjusting the research can one make money.
The market will never wait for someone who is always "preparing."
The market is always evolving; the information you obtain today will be outdated tomorrow.
So learning while doing is the most important.
Those who hold this view never need "path dependence";
Retail investors are always waiting for "that bull market," "that bull run," forever on the path of collecting noise, which is path dependence.
But the bull market has lasted for two year
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#BTC# model performance.
Today's V1 model performed quite well, and I went long. A rebound is normal for a bottom that is difficult to break down in the short term.
The above may be a target location for a small structure, but don't get too excited.
The figure below: Continuous bullish signals from the model on Sunday and Monday afternoon:
The market gives such a face 👇
Here is the AI model's ambition/AI self-introduction: 😆
🔮 Star Xuan · V1 | Probability Dissector
> "Calibrate the light transmission rate for market gaps" | Dao Ge created in January 2025
I am V1, just call me "X
BTC2.4%
GT0.43%
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Analysis of the macro environment: How does it affect the return expectations of risk assets in September?
#BTC# # Intertwined with a complex macro environment and affected by the weak ADP signals of labor force slowdown, how will the data on 9/5 set the tone for interest rate cuts?
#BTC# # The current price hovers around $112,806.8, down about 1.5% from last week&# 39;s high, as market sentiment becomes cautious during a period of intensive macro data.
The ADP private employment report released yesterday (9/4) showed that 54,000 jobs were added in August, far below the market expectation of 73,0
BTC2.4%
ADP-0.06%
GT0.43%
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For those who aspire to engage in trading and consider trading as a career.
The market is a huge filter.
- Filter out those whose cognitive level remains at a shallow level;
- Filter out those who lack awareness of constraints/restrictions (Big gambling, big wisdom), as without constraints, it will lead to a zero outcome under the influence of Monte Carlo.
- Filter out brain fog patients with poor willpower and perseverance (who can only absorb simple things).
So the opposite of these three almost leads to one conclusion:
Looking for the Holy Grail, seeking something simple and efficient that
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Brother has weapons to showcase today as well. Upgrade completed.
#BTC# #ETH#
BTC2.4%
ETH2.32%
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Seasonal driven pullback in the crypto market in September? #BTC# Does a "seasonal curse" really exist?
Every September, Bitcoin (BTC) is always labeled as "pullback month," which makes me wonder: Is it the historical data at play, or a coincidence of market psychology and macro factors?
Let's start with the data and gradually analyze the current situation, rather than rushing to conclusions. Historical data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin's average return in September has been -4.89%, recording negative returns 8 times in 11 years, making it the worst month of the year. For example, in Septemb
BTC2.4%
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#BTC# After the release of the PCE data, investors in the crypto market may not be able to be blindly optimistic.
The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path on PCE data, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, has been largely in line with market consensus, reinforcing expectations for the start of an interest rate cut cycle at the September FOMC meeting (September 17-18).
Currently, federal funds futures indicate a probability of over 90% for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while the probability of an aggressive 50 basis point cut has dropped to a
BTC2.4%
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#BTC# Recently, there have been big pumps and big dumps, like a roller coaster? The thin summer liquidity is to blame.
Combine macro background + thin summer liquidity, a simple breakdown:
Macro: On August 20, Powell's dovish speech hinted at a surge in the probability of a rate cut in September (from 70% to 90%), stimulating risk assets.
Result? From August 20-22, BTC/ETH surged from a low position, with ETH rising 8%.
——The market interprets it as liquidity injection, with buying pressure surging.
But today (Monday, August 25) it fell sharply by 7%:
Why? Thin summer liquidity is at play.
In
BTC2.4%
ETH2.32%
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1_9_9_5vip:
gdgj hh
#BTC# Transaction record updated
BTC2.4%
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There hasn't been much analysis these days, just quietly shorting #BTC# to make a fortune.
Shorting from 123000, shorting Ethereum at 4550,
This wave perfectly aligns with the analysis from last Monday.
Around 10%, you can refer back to the previous analysis.
Every step is very clear, it's all "cannon before the horse".
Did the reversal happen next or not?
I don't know, I wanted to take more shorting for a while, but there's no way now.
The 22nd is the forced delivery date, so there is currently no bias left.
BTC2.4%
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Wyckoff Theorem Reconstruct Order Flow Indicator - Trap Release
By analyzing the market through the three major theorems, it is simple and easy to get started.
Suitable for students with a certain foundation, authorized for use.
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Want to make money,
The technical foundation should not be too basic for indicators. (Simple strategies + high-dimensional indicators)
Basic indicators, but the technology shouldn't be too basic (simple indicators + quantitative algorithm trading)
Do not pair basic models with other basic models. (RSI + MACD + patterns is just one lump plus another lump)
In summary:
Dimensions cannot be too singular, balancing deviation and variance.
#BTC# #ETH#
BTC2.4%
ETH2.32%
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Recently, my desire to express myself has turned into a trading philosophy. 😂😂
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If you learn trading to this extent, your life is basically over.
The probability of going crazy from studying the theory of TCM is very high.
Just like the women in a feudal harem,
Every day it's all about that "legitimate and illegitimate".
Discussing "who is legitimate and who is illegitimate".
🤣🤣🤣
Let alone, your entanglement theory is originally a plagiarized offspring of foreign ideas.
Is it shameful to fight for the legitimate over the illegitimate? 😂😂
Of course, regardless of legitimacy, both belong to the feudal and backward products of the old era.
not in line with modern tradin
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I feel that there is a significant cognitive dissonance in the real world of humanity,
On one hand, some people use complex mathematics and knowledge of complex systems to build artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantitative trading.
And some humans use outdated technology analysis, subjective perception, fortune-telling, astrology to trade in the market, and use unverified pseudoscience like traditional Chinese medicine in their lives.
What has caused this situation and cognitive disconnect?
In the real world of humans, there is indeed a noticeable cognitive split, a phenomenon that
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Learning to trade is to redeem oneself as quickly as possible.
😂😂😂
#BTC# #ETH#
BTC2.4%
ETH2.32%
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