微策略公司（Strategy）執行主席 Michael Saylor 在 2025 年 6 月接受彭博社採訪時表示，比特幣熊市將不再重現，並預測比特幣長期目標價為 100 萬美元，認為機構需求的結構性成長已從根本上改變了比特幣的市場動態。這番言論在社群媒體上迅速傳播，並在加密貨幣投資者之間引發了廣泛爭議。
Saylor 的核心論點：機構主導的新市場結構
Saylor 認為，比特幣市場的底層需求結構已發生根本性轉變。過去，散戶投資者主導比特幣的價格波動，情緒性買賣行為造成劇烈的週期性崩盤；如今，大型機構基金、上市公司和資產管理者正在持續吸納並長期持有比特幣。
他表示，這種穩定的機構需求，結合比特幣固定的 2,100 萬枚供應上限，構成了他看漲的核心邏輯：「全球政府每年增發貨幣，但比特幣遵循嚴格的規則，沒有任何人能改變其供應量。」Saylor 將比特幣定性為「數位價值儲存手段」，常與黃金相提並論，並指出隨著全球採用率和知名度持續提升，比特幣邁向 100 萬美元的路徑在長期來看具有邏輯依據。他明確將 100 萬美元定位為長期目標，而非短期預期。
批評者的反駁：歷史數據與機構的侷限
批評者援引的主要論據包括：比特幣在 2021 年高峰後跌幅約 54%；而根據 Chainalysis 的歷史數據，過去多個週期中的跌幅介於 30% 至 80% 之間。批評者同時指出，機構資金的進入可在長期內降低部分波動性，但無法消除比特幣對宏觀經濟衝擊、利率變化和地緣政治事件的敏感性，在重大負面事件面前，機構投資者同樣可能選擇減倉，並不構成系統性保護。
Saylor 觀點與批評者論據的核心對照
Saylor 的支持論點：機構需求結構性成長、比特幣 2,100 萬枚固定供應、貨幣長期貶值驅動需求、全球採用率持續上升
批評者的反駁依據：2021 年跌幅 54%、歷史週期跌幅達 30%–80%（Chainalysis 數據）、市場仍對宏觀事件敏感、機構資金不能消除系統性風險
Saylor 的定性框架：比特幣是「數位黃金」，長期儲值功能隨時間持續增強
批評者的定性框架：比特幣波動性依然存在，熊市由宏觀因素主導，不因需求結構改變而完全消失
常見問題
Michael Saylor 為何認為機構需求能消除比特幣熊市？
Saylor 的邏輯是：機構投資者持倉期更長、決策更理性，不同於情緒性拋售的散戶。大型機構建立比特幣持倉後，通常不會因短期波動而退出，這種效應可在一定程度上吸收拋售壓力，降低市場崩盤的深度和速度——但批評者認為這是程度上的改善，而非完全消除市場風險。
比特幣歷史上的最大跌幅有多大，是否支持「熊市消失論」？
根據 Chainalysis 的歷史數據，比特幣過去多個週期的跌幅介於 30% 至 80%，其中包括 2021 年高峰後約 54% 的跌幅。這些歷史數據是批評 Saylor 觀點的主要依據——儘管每個週期的低點跌幅可能隨市場成熟度提升而收窄，但顯著的價格調整在歷史上曾多次發生。
Michael Saylor 的 100 萬美元目標有何前提假設，主要風險是什麼？
Saylor 的 100 萬美元長期目標建立在三大前提之上：比特幣全球採用率持續提升、法定貨幣長期貶值，以及比特幣固定供應。批評者指出，這些假設的實現需要數十年時間，期間監管環境變化、競爭性數位資產出現，以及宏觀經濟衝擊均構成不確定性因素。
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