BlockBeats 消息，3 月 3 日，Wintermute 发布市场观点称，伊朗地缘政治冲突导致风险资产出现大幅波动。对加密货币而言，周末的下跌消化了第一波地缘政治恐慌，而反弹则源于市场认为比特币已从历史最高点下跌 45%，大部分损失已被市场消化。但能源因素的影响被低估了。持续高企的油价可能会使通胀居高不下，而各国央行原本希望通胀降温，这可能会进一步推迟美国降息。加密货币在这场博弈中处于不利地位。
**尽管 ETF 近期回流，但就目前交易情况来看，机构参与度明显低于去年 11 月至今年 9 月期间 8.5 万至 9.5 万美元的交易区间。**当时，机构交易更为活跃，尤其是在价格下跌时。而如今，在当前价位，买盘明显不足。市场显得十分脆弱。
最后，山寨币继续遵循典型的熊市模式，因为正收益表现非常短暂，投资者缺乏追逐超额收益的意愿，因此大多数山寨币不太可能出现更持久的上涨行情。
Wintermute 认为，尽管周一加密货币出现短暂反弹，但市场依然脆弱，波动性再次抬头。在增长风险溢价不断攀升、美联储又无力干预的当下，加密货币作为高贝塔系数增长资产，持续承压。ETF 资金外流（目前虽已短暂中断）印证了这一点。这就是近期的现实。
Wintermute 建议投资者目前谨慎为上。市场关注的焦点主要集中在冲突新闻上，尤其是霍尔木兹海峡重新开放或缓和敌对行动的任何进展。如果冲突持续时间超出预期，能源成本上涨可能会重塑利率预期，并对风险资产造成普遍压力。
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