加密服務公司 NYDIG 研究主管 Greg Cipolaro 提出，人工智慧（AI）可能被定位為如同電力般的通用技術，其對就業市場、經濟成長和風險偏好的宏觀影響將深遠影響比特幣。Cipolaro 指出，若 AI 引發勞動市場動盪，促使各國央行採取財政擴張和貨幣寬鬆政策，由此產生的流動性刺激可能對比特幣構成有利條件。
NYDIG 的兩種情境：AI 對比特幣的利多與利空路徑
Cipolaro 在報告中描繪了 AI 影響比特幣的兩條截然不同的路徑：
利多情境一：若 AI 造成勞動力市場動盪與廣泛失業，促使各國央行採取貨幣寬鬆政策，由此產生的流動性擴張和低實際利率環境對比特幣有利。
利多情境二：若 AI 驅動的成長同時伴隨流動性擴張且實際利率受控，這一背景同樣可能對比特幣形成正面支撐。
利空情境：反之，若 AI 推動的更強勁成長推高實際收益率、收緊貨幣政策並降低寬鬆需求，比特幣則可能面臨阻力。
兩種情境的關鍵觀察指標
貨幣政策走向：AI 是否引發失業率上升，是決定央行寬鬆力度的核心變數
實際利率水準：流動性擴張若伴隨受控的實際利率，比特幣受益最大
AI 成長質量：若強勁成長推高通膨與實際收益率，則對比特幣不利
勞動市場動盪：AI 替代就業可能觸發財政與貨幣的雙重刺激政策
AI 如何重塑宏觀經濟：從就業衝擊到技術整合
現實層面，AI 的就業衝擊已初見端倪。Jack Dorsey 的支付公司 Block 宣布因 AI 影響將裁員約 40%，Dorsey 預測更多公司將效仿。高盛在 8 月報告中指出，AI 廣泛應用可能取代多達 7% 的美國勞動力，但也可能創造新的就業機會。
Cipolaro 承認，AI 轉型將「充滿挑戰」，需要重新設計工作流程、培養新技能並增加投資，但他預測 AI 的發展將遵循與以往技術進步相同的「歷史模式」——融合而非淘汰。「能夠有效整合新技術的企業將擴大利潤率和生產力差距；適應新技術的員工將提升自身價值；而抵制新技術的人則可能落後，」他說。
在加密貨幣領域，AI 應用也在快速擴展。今年 10 月，Coinbase 發布了名為「Payments MCP」的新工具，允許 AI 代理存取與人類相同的鏈上金融工具，進一步融合 AI 與區塊鏈基礎設施。
常見問題
NYDIG 為何認為 AI 對比特幣可能有利？
NYDIG 研究主管 Cipolaro 指出，若 AI 引發廣泛就業衝擊，迫使各國央行採取貨幣寬鬆政策，由此帶來的流動性擴張與低實際利率環境，歷史上對比特幣等風險資產均形成有利支撐。
AI「通用技術」框架是什麼意思？
Cipolaro 將 AI 類比為電力或蒸汽機等改變整個經濟運作模式的「通用技術」，其影響廣泛滲透就業市場、生產力和貨幣政策，這種系統性影響使 AI 的宏觀經濟效應難以用傳統行業框架評估。
NYDIG 對比特幣的利空情境是什麼？
若 AI 帶來的強勁成長推高通膨和實際收益率，促使各國央行收緊貨幣政策，比特幣等風險資產將面臨阻力。簡而言之，AI 是比特幣的機會還是挑戰，最終取決於其對貨幣政策的影響方向。
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