2月26日消息，据Cointelegraph报道，XRP当前价格约1.44美元，自2025年10月高点以来累计回调超过50%，已连续五个月处于下行区间。随着价格在2月两次稳守1.30至1.35美元支撑带，市场开始关注其是否正在构筑典型的双底形态，这一结构若确认，或为三月份带来约20%的反弹空间。
（来源：TradingView）
从技术面看，XRP颈线位置位于1.50美元附近，一旦日线级别有效突破该关键阻力位，理论上涨目标将指向1.68至1.70美元区间，对应短期反弹预期明显增强。当前价格多次测试底部区域后反弹，显示买盘在低位逐步承接，市场情绪较此前极度悲观阶段已有所缓和。
链上数据同样释放边际改善信号。CryptoQuant数据显示，90天移动平均的鲸鱼净流出已从2025年12月的约-3350万枚XRP收缩至约-329万枚，抛压显著减弱。同时，持有至少1000枚XRP的钱包供应量重新上升，表明大户资金正在低位重新累积筹码。历史上类似的鲸鱼流出放缓曾出现在2025年4月，随后价格录得超过50%的阶段性上涨。
不过，反弹路径仍面临多重技术压制。1.68美元至1.70美元区域上方叠加50日EMA动态阻力，而XRP在整个2月始终未能有效站稳该均线。若再次在该位置受阻，价格可能演变为熊市三角旗形结构，下行目标或回探1美元关口，意味着潜在回撤幅度接近30%。
宏观层面亦构成不确定因素。若全球避险情绪升温或地缘政治紧张局势加剧，高波动加密资产的流动性可能收紧，从而削弱技术形态带来的上行动能。因此，XRP三月走势的核心观察指标仍是1.50美元突破有效性、鲸鱼持仓变化以及整体加密市场风险偏好，一旦三者共振转强，价格向1.70美元修复的概率将显著提升。
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