PANews 2月18日消息，据The Block报道，研究及经纪公司K33表示，当前比特币市场结构、衍生品头寸及ETF资金流向与2022年熊市后期高度相似，预示可能进入长期盘整而非快速反弹。K33研究主管Vetle Lunde表示，其专有指标显示当前状况与2022年9月及11月（接近熊市底部）存在“惊人相似性”。但历史经验表明，市场底部后往往伴随漫长盘整，相似环境下平均90天回报率仅约3%。
数据显示，比特币自1月以来下跌近28%，资金费率连续11天为负，未平仓合约降至26万枚BTC以下，多头头寸正平仓。现货交易量周环比下降59%，期货未平仓合约跌至四个月低点。机构方面，CME交易者相对不活跃，比特币ETP持仓自去年10月峰值减少103,113枚BTC，但93%峰值敞口仍保留，显示机构主要在减少敞口而非完全离场。恐惧与贪婪指数近期触及5的历史低点，但Lunde指出，极端恐惧时期买入的平均90天回报率仅2.4%，远低于极端贪婪时期的95%，表明恐惧并不能可靠预示强劲反弹。他预计比特币将在6万至7.5万美元区间长时间盘整，当前入场点位有吸引力，但需保持耐心。
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