Foresight News 消息，Willy Woo 发推表示，将比特币熊市划分为三个阶段对于判断周期很有帮助。第一阶段——熊市开端，此时比特币的流动性已然崩溃（这一情况发生在 2025 年第三季度），价格也随之开始下跌。比特币是一种规模较小的资产，因此对流动性极度敏感。正因如此，它往往领先全球宏观经济步入熊市，通常要早好几个月。换句话说，当聪明资金撤资时，比特币会迅速做出反应。聪明资金也可能从股票市场撤资，但股票市场不会迅速作出反应。在这一阶段，长期极度看涨者会盲目地声称这只是更大牛市中的一次回调，却拿不出任何资金流入的有力证据，只会空谈一些说辞。
第二阶段——此时全球股市转入熊市。由于股市是一个规模高达 100 万亿美元的庞大市场，它就像一艘巨型超级油轮，行动迟缓。这是比特币熊市的中期阶段，此时所有风险资产都在下跌，毫无疑问我们已身处熊市之中。第三阶段——隧道尽头的曙光。在这一阶段流动性开始好转，资金流出达到峰值并开始企稳。投资者正在回流。这一阶段通常会出现最后一次价格暴跌（投降式抛售），要么发生在资金流出峰值之前，要么稍晚于峰值。按照这个熊市框架来看，比特币目前处于第一阶段，且接近第二阶段。
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