2月11日消息，2026年以来，以太坊（ETH）持续走弱，年内累计跌幅已超过30%，价格一度跌破2000美元关口。最新数据显示，ETH现报约1971美元，主要持仓群体——包括长期累积地址与ETF投资者——已全面进入未实现亏损区间，但资金并未出现恐慌式外流，市场呈现出“价格承压、筹码稳固”的复杂格局。
链上分析师CW8900指出，当前ETH价格已跌破2025年6月以来巨鲸建仓时的已实现均价，意味着大量核心地址处于浮亏状态。与此同时，全球最大的以太坊金库BitMine的账面亏损已突破70亿美元。不过，相关数据表明，这些地址并未大规模撤退，反而在低位持续补仓。
ETF持有者同样承压。Bloomberg高级研究分析师James Seyffart表示，ETH ETF的平均成本约在3500美元附近，目前跌幅超过60%，处境甚至比比特币ETF更严峻。尽管如此，ETF净流入仅从约150亿美元回落至120亿美元以下，大部分资金仍选择持有，而非清仓离场。
更值得关注的是链上资金动向。以太坊交易所净持仓变化指标已转负，说明提币量高于充值量，通常被视为长期看多信号。BitMine近期再度购入4万枚ETH，并追加质押14.04万枚，使其质押总量达到297万枚，占其ETH持仓的近七成，显示机构仍在押注网络长期价值。
当前的以太坊市场，正处于信心与价格错位的阶段。虽然短期波动剧烈，但巨鲸与机构的持续布局表明，他们更倾向于在低位建立长期仓位。未来走势，或将取决于整体加密环境回暖节奏，以及ETH能否重新站上关键技术区间。
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