2月11日消息，作为市值最大的稳定币，USDT近期出现罕见信号。其市值增长在连续两年扩张后首次转为负值，引发市场对中期行情转弱的关注。多项链上指标显示，稳定币供应变化正成为衡量资金风险偏好和加密市场流动性的关键参考。
数据显示，CryptoQuant统计的USDT市值变化60天平均值已在2月转负，上一次出现类似情况还是在2023年第三季度。历史图表表明，当USDT供应持续增长时，新流动性往往流入加密资产；而当增速为负，意味着资金更倾向于撤离市场，而非等待反弹。分析师Crypto Tice指出，购买力收缩会削弱下行支撑，使短期反弹更容易遭遇抛压。
从具体数据看，CoinGecko显示，USDT市值已从1月初的约1870亿美元降至1843亿美元。这一变化与Tether近期的大规模销毁操作有关。2月10日，Whale Alert披露Tether一次性销毁35亿USDT，上个月也销毁了30亿枚。CryptoQuant认为，这是历史上规模最大的两次连续销毁事件，反映出投资者将稳定币兑换回法币的需求正在上升。
投资者Ted表示，自2025年第一季度以来，USDT供应首次进入下降通道，短期并非积极信号。不过，过往周期提供了一定参照：自2022年以来，60日平均市值变化为负的阶段通常持续约两个月，并多与比特币横盘整理或阶段性底部相对应，例如2022年末和2023年下半年。
因此，当前走势可能意味着市场在低位徘徊，或在未来两个月内继续承压后再寻求修复。部分分析认为，若关键支撑63,000美元失守，比特币或面临更深层调整。USDT市值的异动，正在成为观察加密市场中期方向的重要风向标。
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