摩根大通喊比特幣一年內有望衝上 17 萬美元，但表示若 Strategy 因 mNAV 失守或被 MSCI 除名，可能會影響短期漲勢。 （前情提要：貝萊德執行長公開認錯：比特幣不是只有犯罪，它是波動性很強的恐懼資產） （背景補充：加密貨幣 ETF 資金光速撤離，貝萊德等發行商還能賺嗎？） 比特幣 (Bitcoin) 昨日最高衝破 9.4 萬美元之後，目前在 9.2 萬美元上下震盪，多空雙方目前還沒有看到誰明顯佔上方。不過摩根大通稍早公布一份報告預估，將比特幣未來 6 至 12 個月目標價拉高至 17 萬美元，以現價來說預估漲幅超 80%。 該行分析師認為宏觀避險需求終將推動價格創高，但也提醒短期動能取決於個別大型持幣者的流動性。 Strategy 財務壓力成變數 同時摩根大通報告點名微策略(Strategy) 的財務狀況是左右比特幣短期行情的關鍵。分析師計算 Strategy 的 mNAV 目前約為 1.1，距離 1.0 警戒線一步之遙。若跌破，代表公司市值低於其持有的比特幣價值，可能引發債權人或投資人要求回收現金，被迫拋售持倉，市場恐現連鎖賣壓。 為守住 HODL 立場，Strategy 先前已賣股籌集約 14.4 億美元現金，官方稱這筆資金足以支付未來兩年利息與股息，公司也透過永續優先股與可轉債延長債務期限。 不過，其 2025 年獲利預期已由 240 億美元大幅下修至虧損 55 億至獲利 63 億美元之間，且存在被 MSCI 指數剔除 風險，進一步壓抑股價並惡化 mNAV。（MSCI 將於明年 1 月決定，是否將那些把資產 50% 或以上投資於數位資產的公司排除在其指數之外。） 延伸閱讀：Michael Saylor回應「微策略恐遭MSCI指數剔除」：我們的比特幣事業獨一無二，指數分類無法定義 前十大代幣同步震盪 其他前十大代幣主要也跟隨比特幣走勢，以太坊從 3,200 美元回落、過去 24 小時跌幅最大的是 XRP，現報 2.1 美元。 相關報導 貝萊德比特幣 ETF 成 BlackRock 最賺錢基金，一年爽賺 2.45 億美元手續費 美國德州斥資 500 萬美元買入貝萊德 IBIT：DAT 熄火後，SBR 能接棒重燃比特幣牛市嗎？ 貝萊德前高管：以太坊已成華爾街基礎建設，以後金融不會再分Defi與傳統金融〈摩根大通喊比特幣明年上看 17 萬美元，短期緊盯微策略 mNAV 1 這條紅線〉這篇文章最早發佈於動區BlockTempo《動區動趨-最具影響力的區塊鏈新聞媒體》。
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