VCs who have been harvested by the crypto world...

All victories come from the persistence of faith. Believe in the power of belief, and it has never let you and me down here. Welcome to follow Star Value Investment, there must always be someone looking up at the stars.

Overnight Bitcoin hit bottom and rebounded, reclaiming the 98K level. Before writing this article, I happened to come across the daily data shared by the assistant in the VIP group, with Bitcoin ETF outflows nearing 1.2 billion US dollars in the past three days, and a net outflow of 338 million US dollars in a single day. On the contrary, Ethereum has become a net inflow, with 53.54 million US dollars coming in. A bit mystical.

Speaking of this, many people are cursing Ethereum for not being able to break through 4K, even Massari’s 24-25 year industry report summary specifically opened a chapter to criticize Ethereum, saying that Solana is too tight, too old-fashioned, and lacks new ideas, and there are a lot of negative news to distribute. Then I casually scanned it and couldn’t bear to read it. I suggest that everyone don’t bother to read it either.

What is the real situation? Regardless of the development of the Ethereum ecosystem in recent years, what is the situation purely based on price? Today, I was still joking about this matter in the member group:

“At the end of December 2020, which was 4 years ago, the main uptrend of the crypto bull market has started. The price of Bitcoin was around 29,000 dollars, about 145% of the peak of the last bull market. The price of Ethereum was 760u, about 54% of the peak of the last bull market. Now, another halving bull market has started, with the price of Bitcoin at 98,000, about 142% of the peak of the last bull market, and the price of Ethereum at 3500u, about 71.8% of the peak of the last cycle.”

The data is here, and Ethereum is not only not lagging behind, but also stronger than last year. It’s just that with the increase in market value, the multiplier of this round is likely to be smaller than the multiplier of the previous round, that’s all. Many people invest based on impulsive decisions, relying solely on intuition. How can that be done well?

Even in the highly recognized and strong Solana, I think most people didn’t make money. They are all listening to this and that, constantly switching positions, and as a result, the coins are getting fewer and fewer. Finally, they come running to ask for guidance, whether this coin can be saved, whether that coin can be saved.

There is a high probability that there is no hope, and I’m not talking about coins, but people. Don’t think too highly of me, we are all retail investors, I just have a little more money, but fundamentally we are the same. The ideas and resources of retail investors have almost zero impact on the market.

Don’t believe it? Let’s look at some more data. From December 11th to December 18th, the number of Bitcoin holding addresses increased by 103,000. Looking at the K-line, the most miserable drop occurred during this short period. Why? The addresses with the most growth are those holding 0 to 0.01 Bitcoin, with a total increase of only 373.59 coins, currently valued at 36 million US dollars. At the same time, the top ten addresses decreased by one, resulting in a reduction of 46,078 Bitcoins; the addresses holding 1000 to 10,000 Bitcoins decreased by 19, resulting in a reduction of 29,124 Bitcoins.

The market is determined by the large holders, which is the reason for the fall. But the reason for the stability is that there are also large holders buying in. The number of addresses holding 100 to 1000 coins has increased by 138, and the amount of coins held has increased by 90,000.

Retail investors are really unstable in this market, with not many cards to play and unable to withstand the turmoil. In the last bull-bear cycle, a friend took out 6 million hoping to buy the dip, I suggested buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. Now it has skyrocketed, I have to congratulate and show off in front of others. But to my surprise, he is still down 820,000. After asking a few questions, I understood why.

The reason is, first of all, I didn’t buy enough U, only 1.5 million, and then I didn’t listen to it all, only bought 500,000 ETH, and then I focused on studying various alpha opportunities, Bitcoin Layer 2 ecology, TON ecology, Solana & meme, LSD, the rest is basically lost, theoretically there is still 500,000 ETH to bottom out and make money, but unfortunately I heard all kinds of rumors and news, constantly switching positions, and the operation is as fierce as a tiger…

Of course, there are also many people who are willing to follow my advice and guidance. By using our strategy in the bear market, they made bold adjustments to their chips, exchanged a lot of bitcoins, and now feel very comfortable, and will be even more comfortable in the future.

Many people like to boast, ‘I made a lot of money on small coins based on my understanding,’ but it’s actually just luck. People with enough understanding will definitely choose Bitcoin. Don’t listen to those KOLs and bloggers who don’t understand. I met several top OGs these days, and they made a lot of money and started funds, having far more industry resources and insider information than us, but none of them outperformed Bitcoin.

Earlier, I had a chat with a top VC in Shanghai, I won’t mention the name. The research report they produced is very forward-looking, saying that if the ETF is approved in this round, it will bring at least $30 billion in incremental funds to Bitcoin, which is a very impressive prediction. However, the problem is that they chose to go all-in on Bitcoin layer 2, not because they are stupid, but if they only buy Bitcoin without explaining to LP, after all, others can buy it themselves.

In this way, many institutions are unanimously not emphasizing the return rate. On the one hand, it is because they haven’t invested in Bitcoin and have no face to talk about it; on the other hand, it may make LPs feel like ‘I might as well buy Bitcoin myself’… So VCs are all saying ‘support innovation,’ ‘witnessing the future of the future,’ blah blah blah…

And the projects that were invested in are all locked up. The first to run away are market makers, project parties, and airdrop enthusiasts. They wanted to play with the rules of the Internet, but ended up being brutally harvested, especially the third- and fourth-rate VC firms, which were completely bullied. That’s not all, VC companies without business started trading coins personally, playing MEME, playing this and that, losing their faces like leeks…

So, if you want to trade small coins and VC, it’s not easy. Why should retail investors hold heavy positions? Besides Bitcoin and Ethereum, if you want to make money, you have to spend more than ten hours a day in the cryptocurrency industry and have your own analytical ability. Many people have their own jobs and don’t have that much time. The best way is to allocate Bitcoin properly and follow those who can deliver results with a small amount of money, so as not to waste the early industry dividends.