2月25日消息，比特币本月已下跌约28%，尽管近期价格接近此前高点，但区块链分析公司 Glassnode 警告，未来5到6个月仍可能面临下行压力。
Glassnode 报告显示，以90天移动平均值衡量的比特币已实现盈亏比（RPR）已跌破1，这一指标通常反映市场抛售压力和投资者情绪。历史数据显示，当盈亏比跌破1时，熊市行情往往至少持续半年。该公司指出，盈亏比回升至1以上通常意味着抛售压力有所缓解。
报告以2022年和2018年的熊市为例进行对比。在2022年的熊市中，比特币在盈亏比跌破1后的六个月内价格下跌约25%；而在2018年类似市场环境下，比特币五个月内跌幅超过50%。Glassnode分析认为，如果历史模式重演，当前比特币可能仍将延续数月的下行走势。
已实现盈亏比衡量的是比特币网络上实际盈利与亏损的比例，它能够直观反映长期持有者的抛售压力及整体市场情绪。分析师指出，投资者应密切关注RPR变化及价格关键支撑位，以判断市场潜在风险和可能的反弹窗口。
总体来看，尽管短期内比特币出现技术性反弹，但抛售压力未显著缓解，长期持有者和新入场投资者仍需谨慎操作，以应对可能的延续下跌行情。
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