Is Solana facing downside risks this week? Key factors and price fluctuation warning Updated on July 8

Gate market data shows that as of July 8, Solana (SOL) is currently priced at $148.53, having fallen 2.3% in the past 24 hours. However, several indicators suggest that the volatility of SOL's price may significantly increase this week, and the downside risks cannot be ignored. Here are the key factors that crypto traders need to closely follow that could impact SOL's movement this week:

🔻 Key resistance level: 50-day moving average ($154) suppresses upward space

• SOL price has failed to effectively break through the 50-day moving average (SMA) $154 key resistance level for nearly a month.
• If there is insufficient buy support to break through this level, SOL may continue to be under pressure.
• Historical patterns show that if there is resistance and a fall here, the SOL price may quickly test the $130 support level, potentially triggering a larger pullback.

⚠️ Alert: $109 million long liquidation risk may trigger a fall

• The Coinglass liquidation heatmap shows that if the SOL price falls to the $150 area, it will face a strong liquidation risk of over $109 million in long positions.
• Massive Long Squeeze (Long Squeeze) usually triggers forced selling, significantly contributing to SOL price prediction's bearish pressure, which may accelerate the price fall.

🐸 Meme coin activity surges: a double-edged sword that exacerbates SOL Fluctuation.

• Recently, the activity of Meme coins based on Solana has significantly increased (total market value up 3% to $11 billion), partly due to the promotion of platforms like PumpFun.
• Such activities usually increase the transaction volume and network usage on the SOL chain, which may bring about short-term benefits.
• However, the decline of the Meme coin craze could also quickly reverse sentiment, leading to a steep fall risk for SOL prices. Recent developments involving Tesla CEO Elon Musk in the cryptocurrency space have also amplified market attention.

🌍 Macro risks: Trade tariff concerns may trigger "risk aversion" sentiment

• The 70% import tariff for regions such as Japan, South Korea, and the European Union is about to take effect.
• Such macroeconomic uncertainty may prompt traders to shift to risk-off mode (Risk-off), negatively impacting the overall encryption market including Solana.
• Concerns over tariffs may weaken SOL's momentum to challenge the 50-day moving average, and increase the likelihood of the above-mentioned $109 million long liquidation scenario occurring.

📈 SOL ETF Demand: Institutional Interest Becomes a Key Variable

• The Rex Osprey Solana Spot ETF launched last week had a first-day trading volume of $33 million, showing impressive performance.
• This week, institutional funds continue to flow into the SOL ETF will be an important observation point. If demand is strong, it is expected to provide upward momentum for SOL prices.
• Conversely, if SOL ETF fund inflows slow down or reverse, it may become a catalyst for price decline.

📉 SOL Weekly Trend Summary: Key Crossroads, Fluctuation Warning

• The SOL price is at a critical turning point, with the bullish target still aiming to break through the 50-day moving average resistance of $154.
• If the buying momentum is insufficient leading to a failed breakout, the $150 area with a long liquidation risk of $109 million will significantly increase, potentially triggering a large fall in SOL price.
• At the same time, the macroeconomic uncertainty caused by trade tariffs and the high fluctuation brought by Meme coin activity together constitute the potential driving forces behind SOL's sharp price fluctuations this week. Traders need to closely follow these encryption market risk factors.