散户买盘较高点下跌50%,四月风险资产迎反弹机会

BTC4,57%

Gate News 消息,3月份散户投资者转向股票卖方,总买盘量较1月份高点下降近50%,按周计算资金流入仅50亿美元,低于过去12个月平均水平69亿美元。散户抛售遍及多个板块,尤其是能源股和存储类股,美光科技、闪迪、埃克森美孚、雪佛龙和西方石油成为主要抛售标的。除“七巨头”外,科技板块持仓量跌至六个月最低点,显示散户在每次反弹中倾向减仓。

市场情绪尽管悲观,但季节性因素可能带来反转。过去25年,MSCI全球指数四月平均回报率为+2.0%,正回报概率高达75%,标普500指数四月平均上涨1.3%,为年度第二高月份。历史数据显示,美国股票占全球指数约70%权重,季节性利好对市场多头形成支撑。

地缘政治方面,新停火消息推动风险资产上涨。受局势缓和预期影响,黄金、美国及亚洲股市普遍上涨,而油价回落。比特币(BTC)今日突破71,000美元,显示投资者风险偏好提升。散户极度悲观情绪与季节性利好叠加,可能在第二季度引发市场情绪急剧逆转,为风险资产提供潜在上涨动力。

短期市场观察显示,散户抛售虽导致卖方主导,但宏观利好和停火消息为股市及加密货币提供支撑,投资者可关注潜在反弹机会和板块轮动趋势,尤其是能源、科技和加密资产板块的表现。

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