Bitunix分析师:能源压制与战争不确定性错配,BTC维持流动性区间结构

BTC0,55%

BlockBeats 消息,3 月 25 日,市场正受「政策压低能源价格」与「中东风险未解除」错配主导。美国放宽汽油规范、欧盟推迟禁俄油以抑制通胀与油价,但美伊谈判尚未落地且军事部署持续,导致风险溢价无法完全释放,资金转向黄金等避险资产,整体流动性维持收缩与防御状态。

在此背景下,BTC 并未形成明确趋势,而是典型的流动性驱动区间运行结构。上方 71.6k–73k 为卖单与追价流动性密集区,下方 67k–68k 为买单清算与承接带,中间 70k–71k 因流动性稀疏导致价格快速穿越。短期若价格企稳于 71.6k 上方,将触发向 73k 的流动性扫单;若跌破 68k 承接失效,则转为向下清算延伸。在能源价格与中东谈判尚未出现单边结果前,市场将持续在两端流动性之间反复触发,BTC 本质仍是风险承接结果而非主动趋势资产。

综上所述,加密市场短期内不具备趋势延续条件,更接近流动性主导的震荡阶段,直至能源风险或流动性方向出现单边突破,市场才会选择真正的定价路径。

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