BlockBeats 消息，2 月 20 日，据《华尔街日报》报道，知情人士透露，特朗普正权衡对伊朗进行初步、有限的军事打击，以迫使其同意达成核协议。这项打击方案如果获得授权可能在几天内实施，将瞄准少数军事或政府设施。如果伊朗仍拒绝遵守特朗普终止其铀浓缩活动的要求，美国将对该国政权设施展开大规模打击——这最终可能会以推翻德黑兰政权为目标。
经过数周的审议，尚无法确定特朗普正在多认真地考虑这一方案，不过高级助手已多次向他提出。美国官员们表示，近期的讨论更多地集中在更大规模的打击行动上，但特朗普尚未决定下令进行任何规模的攻击。一些美国官员和分析人士警告称，此类攻击会招致伊朗的报复，可能将美国拖入一场更广泛的中东战争，并危及地区盟友。
此外据市场消息，伊朗在致联合国秘书长和安理会成员的信中表示，「如果遭到攻击，敌对势力在该地区的所有基地、设施和资产都将构成伊朗防御性反应框架内的合法目标。」特朗普的言论表明「存在军事侵略的真正风险」。伊朗并不寻求紧张局势或战争，也不会率先发动战争。
据 PolyBeats 监测，在预测市场 Polymarket 上，美国将在 2 月底之前打击伊朗的概率升至 26%，3 月 15 日之前打击伊朗的概率升至 52%，将在 3 月底之前打击伊朗的概率升至 60%。
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