美國預測市場近年迅速崛起，交易量、用戶數不斷攀升。對此，美國證管會（SEC）主席 Paul Atkins 周四在參議院銀行委員會聽證會上表示，預測市場已成為監管當局密切關注的「重大議題」。
遊走在「賭博」與「金融商品」之間
當被議員問及近期野蠻生長的預測市場產業時，Paul Atkins 表示，這不僅是他個人關注的焦點，也是商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）主席 Michael Selig 的首要任務。
他說：「預測市場正是可能出現監管權重疊的領域之一。」
近一年來，Polymarket 、 Kalshi 等預測市場迅速擴張，尤其是在 2024 年美國總統大選期間，甚至成為了比傳統民調更受矚目的風向球。
預測市場透過「事件合約」，允許用戶對選舉結果、經濟數據、體育賽事等特定事件進行押注。然而，這類產品究竟屬於衍生品，還是由各州法律規範的博弈、賭博行為？如今已成為爭議核心，引爆聯邦政府與州政府之間的管轄權角力。
平台業者主張，根據《商品交易法》，事件合約屬於衍生品範疇，應由 CFTC 享有專屬管轄權；另一方面，美國多州政府已開始提起訴訟，指控部分平台，尤其是涉及體育賽事相關交易的 Kalshi，可能違反地方博弈與賭博法規。
Paul Atkins 表示，預測市場「主要仍屬於 CFTC 管轄範圍」，但兩大監管機構將持續合作。至於是否制定更明確的規則，他則回應稱：「我們會持續觀察。」
Paul Atkins 強調：「我認為我們擁有足夠的法定權限。證券就是證券，無論包裝形式如何。至於預測市場中的某些產品是否構成證券，則取決於合約條款的具體措辭與細微差別。」
與此同時，CFTC 主席 Michael Selig 在彭博《Odd Lots》Podcast 節目中，也表達了對預測市場的看法：
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