2月13日消息，美国现货比特币ETF遭遇新一轮抛售，就在同一天，渣打银行下调了其对比特币在2026年的价格预期，引发市场对中期走势的重新评估。
数据显示，当日现货比特币ETF合计资金净流出4.104亿美元，周内累计流出已达3.751亿美元。若后续未出现明显回流，这将是连续第四周资金为负。相关基金的管理资产规模已回落至约800亿美元，远低于2025年10月接近1700亿美元的高点。
在资金持续外流的背景下，渣打银行将其2026年比特币目标价从15万美元下调至10万美元，并警告在反弹前，价格可能进一步下探至5万美元。该行同时预测，以太坊或跌至1400美元附近，随后在年内回升至更高区间。
市场情绪也体现在多资产ETF表现上。比特币相关产品普遍承压，以太坊ETF亦出现超过1亿美元的资金流出，显示投资者对风险资产的短期态度趋于谨慎。相比之下，Solana相关ETF则小幅录得净流入，成为少数逆势表现的品种。
链上与衍生品分析机构认为，比特币仍处于熊市周期中段。CryptoQuant指出，关键支撑区域在5.5万美元附近尚未被充分测试，目前市场尚未进入“极端熊市”阶段。历史经验显示，真正的周期底部往往伴随着长期持有者出现更大幅度的账面亏损。
截至发稿，比特币在6.6万美元附近震荡，短线压力仍在。随着ETF资金流向、宏观环境与机构预期同步转弱，市场接下来将密切关注5万至5.5万美元区间是否会成为新的多空博弈焦点。
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