市场分析:日美联合干预日元门槛较高,短期内不太可能发生

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Odaily星球日报讯 市场分析人士表示,纽约联储上周五进行的汇率核查是迄今为止最明确的信号,表明日美当局正在密切合作以遏制日元贬值,这也使市场对干预保持高度警惕。不过,直接的协调干预未必会像预期的那样迅速发生。摩根大通日本首席外汇策略师 Junya Tanase 称:“过去的协调干预只发生在极为罕见的情形下。从联合汇率核查到真正的协调干预之间仍存在相当大的距离。”三菱日联摩根士丹利证券外汇策略师 Shota Ryu 表示:“美国可能并不愿意买入一种已经连续五年贬值的货币,或许会配合一次小规模干预,但不太可能采取能在根本上扭转日元下行趋势的行动。”如果日本持续干预,就需要出售部分美债持仓,这可能推高美债收益率,而在市场本已波动的情况下,这是美国未必愿意看到的结果。美元进一步下跌可能会为上周再度升温的“卖出美国”交易火上浇油。Gaitame.com 分析师 Takuya Kanda 表示:“在担忧全球去美元化的背景下,美国不太可能直接参与抛售美元的干预行动。”(金十)

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